Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 8:00 PM ETFirst National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St · Conference game

#147TROYTroy74final

Final

#171ARSTArkansas St86▲ winner

Closing lineARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 7.5

Closing total160.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Troy and Arkansas St
TROY	This season	ARST
8-5	Record	8-5
8-5	ATS	9-4
7-6	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TROY 82–85 ARST · ✓ ARST (62%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TROY	32	42	74
ARST	45	41	86

1st half: TROY 32, ARST 45 (ARST by 13). The model had ARST by 1.9 and a total of 78.1 (actual 77).

Team stats

TROY		ARST
27-65 42%	Field goals	26-58 45%
9-28 32%	3-pointers	12-30 40%
11-18 61%	Free throws	22-29 76%
30 9 off	Rebounds	44 13 off
15	Assists	14
9	Steals	8
5	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	16
21	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	24
6	Fast-break points	7

Players

TROY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thomas Dowd F	37	14	10	1	6-16	1-6
Cooper Campbell G	35	8	4	7	2-7	0-4
Theo Seng F	32	23	8	2	10-13	3-4
Cobi Campbell G	31	6	1	1	2-8	2-6
Victor Valdes F	28	7	2	3	1-10	0-3
Bench
Kerrington Kiel F	14	3	2	1	1-3	1-2
Austin Cross G	12	6	1	0	2-3	2-3
Jerrell Bellamy C	11	7	2	0	3-5	0-0

Did not play: Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Hikaru Awata, Javen Colbert, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green

ARST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Harmon G	29	18	4	2	6-10	4-8
Chandler Jackson G	28	17	5	2	4-6	1-2
Jalen Hampton G	27	2	7	2	0-0	0-0
Matt Hayman G	24	13	3	4	6-17	0-7
Chudi Dioramma F	12	1	3	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Ellingsworth F	23	14	5	0	5-10	4-6
Joey Chammaa G	20	11	4	1	2-4	1-2
T.J. Caldwell G	17	5	4	1	1-6	1-3
Aly Tounkara F	10	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Fredy-Salam Sylla G	10	5	6	0	2-3	1-2

Did not play: Royal Blue Smith, Tim Matthews, Weston Honeycutt, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARST -4.5	ARST -3.4	TROY +1.1	L ARST covered
Total	160.5	166.8	Over 6.3	L Under
Projected score	—	TROY 81.7 · ARST 85.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARST -1.9	ARST -13.0
1H total	78.1	77
1H projected score	TROY 38.1 · ARST 40	TROY 32 · ARST 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LWWWW	8-5	62%	5-2	5-1
ARST WLWWL	9-4	69%	3-1	6-3

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OOUOU	7-6	54%	8-5
ARST OUOOU	7-6	54%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ARST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

TROY 6–3 ARSTTROY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings · TROY 3-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2024-25	ARST 81 vs TROY 94	TROY +2.5	TROY W
Feb 15, 2024-25	TROY 71 @ ARST 70	ARST -6.5	TROY W
Jan 11, 2024-25	ARST 84 @ TROY 78	TROY -2.5	ARST W
Feb 22, 2023-24	TROY 71 @ ARST 79	ARST -1.5	ARST W
Feb 15, 2023-24	ARST 82 @ TROY 71	TROY -6.5	ARST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Troy

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +12.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W L L W L L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-562%

W W L L W W L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O U U O O O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KENT	W 103-97	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	@FUR	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@LMU	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 16	@CSUN	L 85-94	-4.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SDSU	W 108-107	+14.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 20	@USC	L 106-107	+18.5	W +17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsTOL	L 68-75	-2.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsSFPA	W 74-64	-21.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 138
Dec 1	vsWGA	L 89-93	-17.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 182
Dec 14	@UAB	W 86-85	+6.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsMRSH	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 133
Dec 31	vsTXST	W 100-80	-8.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsUSA	W 59-49	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+9.5

FUR

W 64-61

+5.5

LMU

L 63-74

−6.5

CSUN

L 85-94

−13.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+15.5

USC

L 106-107

+17.5

TOL

L 68-75

−9.5

SFPA

W 74-64

−11.5

WGA

L 89-93

−21.5

UAB

W 86-85

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-63

+2.5

TXST

W 100-80

+11.5

USA

W 59-49

+0.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+57.5

FUR

W 64-61

−27.5

LMU

L 63-74

−3.5

CSUN

L 85-94

+21.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+77.5

USC

L 106-107

+53.5

TOL

L 68-75

−16.5

SFPA

W 74-64

−13.5

WGA

L 89-93

+31.5

UAB

W 86-85

+15.5

MRSH

W 70-63

−22.5

TXST

W 100-80

+34.5

USA

W 59-49

−40.5

over 7under 6avg +12.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas St

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

9-4

69% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W L W L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-469%

W L W W L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

O U O O U U O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OHIO	W 89-85	+3.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 7	@SFA	L 65-90	-1.5	L −26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@MOST	W 86-85	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 19	@SMC	L 72-85	+20.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 21	@SMU	L 69-100	+14.5	L −16.5	172.5	U 169
Nov 24	vsJXST	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 28	vsNDSU	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsUTA	W 83-63	-5.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LR	W 90-78	-9.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 13	@RICE	L 76-77	-2.5	L −3.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 17	@TXST	W 89-70	-4.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	@USM	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsJMU	L 74-78	-10.5	L −14.5	158.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+7.5

SFA

L 65-90

−26.5

MOST

W 86-85

+2.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−16.5

JXST

W 74-63

+6.5

NDSU

W 85-80

+1.5

UTA

W 83-63

+14.5

W 90-78

+2.5

RICE

L 76-77

−3.5

TXST

W 89-70

+14.5

USM

W 93-86

+5.5

JMU

L 74-78

−14.5

covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+14.5

SFA

L 65-90

−0.5

MOST

W 86-85

+18.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−3.5

JXST

W 74-63

−18.5

NDSU

W 85-80

+4.5

UTA

W 83-63

−5.5

W 90-78

+20.5

RICE

L 76-77

−2.5

TXST

W 89-70

+7.5

USM

W 93-86

+23.5

JMU

L 74-78

−6.5

over 7under 6avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Troy

Arkansas St

Troy

Arkansas St