Trojan Arena · at Troy · Conference game
Closing line
TROY -4.5✓ TROY covered by 2.5
TROY -4.5✓ TROY covered by 2.5Closing total155.5Under by 22.5
 MRSH | This season | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | Record | 5-5 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 5-6 | O/U | 6-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MRSH 79–83 TROY · ✓ TROY (66%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 32 | 31 | 63 |
| TROY | 36 | 34 | 70 |
1st half: MRSH 32, TROY 36 (TROY by 4). The model had TROY by 2.7 and a total of 75.8 (actual 68).
Team stats
| MRSH | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-65 35% | Field goals | 21-60 35% |
| 8-33 24% | 3-pointers | 9-28 32% |
| 9-14 64% | Free throws | 19-23 83% |
| 45 17 off | Rebounds | 42 13 off |
| 13 | Assists | 11 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MRSH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Speer G | 37 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 4-13 | 2-9 |
| Noah Otshudi G | 37 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 8-19 | 3-5 |
| Wyatt Fricks F | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 5-14 | 0-6 |
| Matt Van Komen C | 16 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Hollenbeck G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Wilson Dubinsky G | 24 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Erich Harding F | 24 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Slay G | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Drew Fuquay F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Landen Joseph G | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
Did not play: Shamarrie Hugie, Grant Moore, Will Moore, Kaiden White, Kai Spears
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 37 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 5-13 | 3-7 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 36 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2-11 | 1-7 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Theo Seng F | 32 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 5-13 | 3-6 |
| Victor Valdes F | 32 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 6-14 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Cross G | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Emmanuel Clarton, Hikaru Awata, Javen Colbert, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -4.5
no move
CloseTROY -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open151.5
▲ 4
Close155.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MRSH +170 · TROY -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -4.5 · unchangedmodel TROY -4.5 matches the line
model TROY -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 151.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 4 upmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TROY -4.5 | TROY -4.7 | TROY +0.2 | W TROY covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 162.1 | Over 6.6 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MRSH 78.7 · TROY 83.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TROY -2.7 | TROY -4.0 |
| 1H total | 75.8 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | MRSH 36.6 · TROY 39.3 | MRSH 32 · TROY 36 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| TROY | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MRSH 1–2 TROYTROY leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings · MRSH 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | TROY 58 @ MRSH 57 | MRSH +1.5 | MRSH W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | MRSH 66 @ TROY 82 | TROY -7.5 | TROY W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | TROY 78 @ MRSH 88 | MRSH -8.5 | MRSH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Marshall
11 games played
Straight up
7-4
64% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ MASS | W 78-72 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | @ TOL | W 85-73 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 12 | vs ELON | W 96-89 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 15 | @ UVA | L 78-104 | +20.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 20 | vs UAPB | W 98-70 | -20.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 23 | vs MERC | W 69-60 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 26 | vs LIP | L 67-90 | -7.5 | L −30.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 3 | @ UNCW | L 69-70 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 6 | @ OHIO | L 81-88 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 10 | vs WKU | W 77-61 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 13 | vs WRST | W 76-74 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@MASS
MASSW 78-72
+10.5
8
@TOL
TOLW 85-73
+14.5
12
vsELON
ELONW 96-89
−1.5
15
@UVA
UVAL 78-104
−5.5
20
vsUAPB
UAPBW 98-70
+7.5
23
vsMERC
MERCW 69-60
−2.5
26
vsLIP
LIPL 67-90
−30.5
3
@UNCW
UNCWL 69-70
+7.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 81-88
−3.5
10
vsWKU
WKUW 77-61
+14.5
13
vsWRST
WRSTW 76-74
−1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MASS
MASSW 78-72
−2.5
8
@TOL
TOLW 85-73
−2.5
12
vsELON
ELONW 96-89
+29.5
15
@UVA
UVAL 78-104
+26.5
20
vsUAPB
UAPBW 98-70
+3.5
23
vsMERC
MERCW 69-60
−18.5
26
vsLIP
LIPL 67-90
−0.5
3
@UNCW
UNCWL 69-70
−11.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 81-88
+11.5
10
vsWKU
WKUW 77-61
−21.5
13
vsWRST
WRSTW 76-74
+0.5
over 5under 6avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Troy
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg +19.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vsTOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
over 6under 4avg +19.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Marshall
7-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wright St76–74
- Wvs Western KY77–61
- L@ Ohio81–88
- L@ UNC Wilmington69–70
- Lvs Lipscomb67–90
A week or more of rest.
Troy
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UAB86–85
- Lvs West Georgia89–93
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves74–64
- Lvs Toledo68–75
- L@ USC106–107
6 days since their last game.