North Dakota State Bison at Arkansas State Red Wolves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETFirst National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St

Final

#171ARSTArkansas St85▲ winner

Closing lineARST -3.5✓ ARST covered by 1.5

Closing total160.5Over by 4.5

Season records: N Dakota St and Arkansas St
NDSU	This season	ARST
3-2	Record	3-3
4-1	ATS	4-2
3-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NDSU 78–80 ARST · ✓ ARST (58%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
NDSU	35	35	10	80
ARST	39	31	15	85

1st half: NDSU 35, ARST 39 (ARST by 4). The model had ARST by 1.2 and a total of 74.2 (actual 74).

Team stats

NDSU		ARST
25-64 39%	Field goals	27-68 40%
10-25 40%	3-pointers	11-33 33%
20-31 65%	Free throws	20-22 91%
41 11 off	Rebounds	46 12 off
12	Assists	18
9	Steals	7
3	Blocks	6
12	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	22
28	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	5

Players

NDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andy Stefonowicz G	40	6	2	5	2-6	1-3
Trevian Carson G	39	10	9	2	3-10	2-4
Damari Wheeler-Thomas G	37	28	6	2	7-13	3-6
Noah Feddersen C	30	12	4	2	3-11	2-4
Markhi Strickland G	20	6	7	0	2-6	0-0
Bench
Carson Smith G	25	6	3	0	3-6	0-1
Tay Smith G	19	3	1	1	1-6	1-5
Treyson Anderson F	15	9	6	0	4-6	1-2

Did not play: Riley Massey, Caleb Schoenrock, Dom Clay, Riley Saunders, Emil Skytt, Max Majerle

ARST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chandler Jackson G	36	10	4	5	2-9	0-3
T.J. Caldwell G	29	19	1	3	6-11	5-8
Christian Harmon G	28	8	5	0	2-7	2-6
Jaxon Ellingsworth F	25	9	8	1	3-9	0-2
Aly Tounkara F	16	2	3	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
Matt Hayman G	26	15	3	4	4-13	3-10
Jalen Hampton G	25	6	11	2	3-5	0-0
Chudi Dioramma F	23	10	7	1	4-7	0-0
Royal Blue Smith G	17	6	3	0	2-6	1-4

Did not play: Weston Honeycutt, Fredy-Salam Sylla, Tim Matthews, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett, Joey Chammaa

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARST -3.5	ARST -2.3	NDSU +1.2	L ARST covered
Total	160.5	158.5	Under 2.0	L Over
Projected score	—	NDSU 78.1 · ARST 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARST -1.2	ARST -4.0
1H total	74.2	74
1H projected score	NDSU 36.5 · ARST 37.7	NDSU 35 · ARST 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-1	1-1
ARST LWWLW	4-2	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: NDSU away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2
ARST UOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%
ARSTlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Dakota St

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +5.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

over 3under 2avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas St

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OHIO	W 89-85	+3.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 7	@SFA	L 65-90	-1.5	L −26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@MOST	W 86-85	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 19	@SMC	L 72-85	+20.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 21	@SMU	L 69-100	+14.5	L −16.5	172.5	U 169
Nov 24	vsJXST	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+7.5

SFA

L 65-90

−26.5

MOST

W 86-85

+2.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−16.5

JXST

W 74-63

+6.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+14.5

SFA

L 65-90

−0.5

MOST

W 86-85

+18.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−3.5

JXST

W 74-63

−18.5

over 3under 3avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Dakota State Bison at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Dakota St

Arkansas St

N Dakota St

Arkansas St