Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Arkansas State Red Wolves: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETFirst National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St

#198JXSTJax State63final

Final

#171ARSTArkansas St74▲ winner

Closing lineARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 6.5

Closing total155.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Jax State and Arkansas St
JXST	This season	ARST
1-1	Record	2-3
0-2	ATS	3-2
2-0	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JXST 77–81 ARST · ✓ ARST (66%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JXST	32	31	63
ARST	38	36	74

1st half: JXST 32, ARST 38 (ARST by 6). The model had ARST by 2.8 and a total of 74.0 (actual 70).

Team stats

JXST		ARST
20-55 36%	Field goals	21-52 40%
4-25 16%	3-pointers	9-26 35%
19-29 66%	Free throws	23-29 79%
37 12 off	Rebounds	34 7 off
9	Assists	17
7	Steals	11
3	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	15
23	Fouls	24
24	Points in paint	24
2	Fast-break points	22

Players

JXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AC Bryant G	30	6	4	1	2-6	2-6
Iaroslav Niagu F	22	4	6	1	2-3	0-0
Jaye Nash G	20	9	2	2	3-5	0-1
Ben Vungo G	18	6	3	0	3-6	0-2
Jacoby Hill G	14	4	1	0	1-3	0-1
Bench
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil G	25	16	6	2	3-11	0-3
Toby Nnadozie G	19	6	4	0	2-5	0-0
Emondrek Erkins-Ford F	19	9	6	1	3-6	1-2
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. G	16	0	0	2	0-3	0-3
Jamar Franklin G	16	3	1	0	1-7	1-7
Connor Loy G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Vick, Aidan Driggers, Thomas Tut, Aitor Anabitarte

ARST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Harmon G	31	21	3	3	5-9	4-7
Chandler Jackson G	29	11	2	5	2-5	0-1
Jaxon Ellingsworth F	24	14	7	1	4-10	2-4
Aly Tounkara F	19	8	4	0	4-6	0-0
Royal Blue Smith G	18	4	2	0	1-6	1-4
Bench
Jalen Hampton G	25	2	5	3	1-1	0-0
Matt Hayman G	24	7	7	3	2-9	1-7
T.J. Caldwell G	22	7	4	2	2-4	1-3
Chudi Dioramma F	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Fredy-Salam Sylla, CJ Geathers, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews, Grayson Bennett, Joey Chammaa

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARST -4.5	ARST -4.8	ARST +0.3	W ARST covered
Total	155.5	158.0	Over 2.5	L Under
Projected score	—	JXST 76.6 · ARST 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARST -2.8	ARST -6.0
1H total	74.0	70
1H projected score	JXST 35.6 · ARST 38.4	JXST 32 · ARST 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LL	0-2	0%	—	—
ARST WLWWL	3-2	60%	—	0-1

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OO	2-0	100%	1-1
ARST OUOOU	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXSTlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%
ARSTlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jax State

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

over 2under 0avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas St

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OHIO	W 89-85	+3.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 7	@SFA	L 65-90	-1.5	L −26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@MOST	W 86-85	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 19	@SMC	L 72-85	+20.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 21	@SMU	L 69-100	+14.5	L −16.5	172.5	U 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+7.5

SFA

L 65-90

−26.5

MOST

W 86-85

+2.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+14.5

SFA

L 65-90

−0.5

MOST

W 86-85

+18.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−3.5

over 3under 2avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jax State

Arkansas St

Jax State

Arkansas St