Yale Bulldogs vs Akron Zips: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#126YALEYale97▲ winner

Final

#118AKRAkron94final

Closing lineAKR -1.5✓ YALE covered by 4.5

Closing total156.5Over by 34.5

Season records: Yale and Akron
YALE	This season	AKR
5-1	Record	4-1
3-3	ATS	5-0
4-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: YALE 80–82 AKR · ✗ AKR (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
YALE	46	51	97
AKR	37	57	94

1st half: YALE 46, AKR 37 (YALE by 9). The model had AKR by 1.5 and a total of 75.8 (actual 83).

Team stats

YALE		AKR
34-53 64%	Field goals	38-61 62%
8-17 47%	3-pointers	12-23 52%
21-21 100%	Free throws	6-9 67%
22 7 off	Rebounds	19 8 off
21	Assists	17
5	Steals	6
2	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	11
13	Fouls	17
48	Points in paint	48
8	Fast-break points	10

Players

YALE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Townsend F	37	21	6	10	8-14	1-2
Isaac Celiscar F	32	23	1	2	8-9	0-0
Casey Simmons G	29	7	6	1	3-5	1-2
Trevor Mullin G	24	12	0	2	2-5	2-4
Samson Aletan C	19	8	5	1	3-3	0-0
Bench
Devon Arlington G	19	6	0	3	3-4	0-0
Jordan Brathwaite G	18	6	1	1	2-6	2-6
Riley Fox F	16	14	1	0	5-7	2-3
Courtney Wallace G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jack Sullivan F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jeannot Basima, Jacob Tsai, Alvin Loving, Daniel Ogunyemi

AKR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tavari Johnson G	35	35	0	8	16-22	2-7
Evan Mahaffey F	33	4	0	1	2-4	0-1
Shammah Scott G	32	25	1	1	9-12	5-6
Eric Mahaffey G	24	5	7	2	2-6	1-1
Amani Lyles F	22	12	3	1	4-8	1-2
Bench
Sharron Young G	17	0	5	3	0-2	0-1
Bowen Hardman G	16	9	1	0	3-5	3-5
Marvin Musiime-Kamali F	13	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Ognjen Stankovic F	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Chabi Barre F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rich Brisco, Conner Groce, Cody Head, Zach Halligan, Tai Perkins, Josh Henderson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AKR -1.5	AKR -2.7	AKR +1.2	L YALE covered
Total	156.5	161.7	Over 5.2	W Over
Projected score	—	YALE 79.5 · AKR 82.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AKR -1.5	YALE -9.0
1H total	75.8	83
1H projected score	YALE 37.1 · AKR 38.6	YALE 46 · AKR 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
YALE WLLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
AKR WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: YALE neutral site, as underdog; AKR neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
YALE OOOUU	4-2	67%	5-1
AKR OOOUU	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YALElast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
AKRlast 5	4-1 80%	5-0 100%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

YALE 1–0 AKRYALE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · YALE 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2024-25	AKR 58 vs YALE 74	YALE -4.5	YALE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Yale

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NAVY	W 97-68	-5.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@QUIN	W 97-60	-6.5	W +30.5	156.5	O 157
Nov 15	vsSTBK	W 86-79	-20.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 18	vsURI	L 77-86	-8.5	L −17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 21	vsGB	W 73-67	-17.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 23	vsCOFC	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+23.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+30.5

STBK

W 86-79

−13.5

URI

L 77-86

−17.5

W 73-67

−11.5

COFC

W 74-63

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+17.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+0.5

STBK

W 86-79

+14.5

URI

L 77-86

+9.5

W 73-67

−8.5

COFC

W 74-63

−11.5

over 4under 2avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Akron

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

5-0

100% covers · avg +12.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJMU	W 85-71	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsPRIN	W 104-69	-13.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 16	@PUR	L 79-97	+18.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 21	vsIONA	W 96-75	-11.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 23	vsEVAN	W 97-59	-11.5	W +26.5	156.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+5.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+21.5

PUR

L 79-97

+0.5

IONA

W 96-75

+9.5

EVAN

W 97-59

+26.5

covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+2.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+16.5

PUR

L 79-97

+12.5

IONA

W 96-75

−2.5

EVAN

W 97-59

−0.5

over 3under 2avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Yale Bulldogs vs Akron Zips

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Yale

Akron

Yale

Akron