Green Bay Phoenix vs Yale Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 12:30 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

Final

#126YALEYale73▲ winner

Closing lineYALE -17.5✓ GB covered by 11.5

Closing total148.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Green Bay and Yale
GB	This season	YALE
0-4	Record	3-1
1-3	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GB 68–87 YALE · ✓ YALE (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GB	30	37	67
YALE	39	34	73

1st half: GB 30, YALE 39 (YALE by 9). The model had YALE by 10.9 and a total of 72.6 (actual 69).

Team stats

GB		YALE
22-55 40%	Field goals	26-51 51%
8-29 28%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
15-24 63%	Free throws	14-19 74%
32 12 off	Rebounds	31 8 off
13	Assists	16
2	Steals	4
3	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	17
24	Points in paint	28
8	Fast-break points	5

Players

GB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marcus Hall F	38	20	8	1	6-14	5-12
Preston Ruedinger G	35	10	6	7	4-12	2-4
C.J. O'Hara G	32	15	3	1	5-8	0-2
Maruan Cicic C	18	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Mac Wrecke G	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Justin Allen G	25	7	2	1	3-10	0-5
Caden Wilkins F	23	3	4	0	1-5	1-5
LeBron Thomas G	18	10	4	2	2-3	0-0

Did not play: Rob Stroud, Trey Schachter, Vukasin Todorovic, Keegan Van Kauwenberg, Ramel Bethea, Brady Fitzgerald, Dontrell Hewlett, Josh Hines

YALE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Celiscar F	34	8	4	2	4-7	0-1
Nick Townsend F	33	13	5	4	3-8	1-1
Casey Simmons G	28	11	5	3	3-8	0-3
Samson Aletan C	27	10	5	1	4-7	0-0
Trevor Mullin G	23	7	2	3	2-5	2-3
Bench
Devon Arlington G	21	4	6	3	2-4	0-2
Jordan Brathwaite G	17	9	0	0	3-5	3-3
Riley Fox F	17	11	1	0	5-7	1-3

Did not play: Daniel Ogunyemi, Courtney Wallace, Jacob Tsai, Alvin Loving, Jack Sullivan, Jeannot Basima

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	YALE -17.5	YALE -18.4	YALE +0.9	L GB covered
Total	148.5	154.9	Over 6.4	L Under
Projected score	—	GB 68.3 · YALE 86.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YALE -10.9	YALE -9.0
1H total	72.6	69
1H projected score	GB 30.8 · YALE 41.7	GB 30 · YALE 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GB LLLW	1-3	25%	—	1-3
YALE WWLL	2-2	50%	—	2-2

Venue/role: GB neutral site, as underdog; YALE neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUU	1-3	25%	0-4
YALE OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GBlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
YALElast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Green Bay

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KU	L 51-94	+30.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@BUF	L 76-83	+3.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 13	@STMN	L 61-80	+13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@MINN	L 65-72	+25.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-94

−12.5

BUF

L 76-83

−3.5

STMN

L 61-80

−5.5

MINN

L 65-72

+18.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-94

−7.5

BUF

L 76-83

+11.5

STMN

L 61-80

−9.5

MINN

L 65-72

−9.5

over 1under 3avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Yale

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NAVY	W 97-68	-5.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@QUIN	W 97-60	-6.5	W +30.5	156.5	O 157
Nov 15	vsSTBK	W 86-79	-20.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 18	vsURI	L 77-86	-8.5	L −17.5	153.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+23.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+30.5

STBK

W 86-79

−13.5

URI

L 77-86

−17.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+17.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+0.5

STBK

W 86-79

+14.5

URI

L 77-86

+9.5

over 4under 0avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Green Bay vs Yale

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Green Bay

Yale

Green Bay

Yale