Reed Green Coliseum · at Southern Miss · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -1.5✓ ARST covered by 5.5
ARST -1.5✓ ARST covered by 5.5Closing total155.5Over by 23.5
| ARST | This season | USM |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | Record | 5-5 |
| 8-3 | ATS | 4-6 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARST 81–79 USM · ✓ ARST (57%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 39 | 54 | 93 |
| USM | 32 | 54 | 86 |
1st half: ARST 39, USM 32 (ARST by 7). The model had ARST by 1.3 and a total of 74.4 (actual 71).
Team stats
| ARST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-63 46% | Field goals | 27-56 48% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 7-16 44% |
| 27-33 82% | Free throws | 25-27 93% |
| 37 16 off | Rebounds | 29 8 off |
| 11 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 30 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-3 |
| Chandler Jackson G | 27 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Chudi Dioramma F | 18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Fredy-Salam Sylla G | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Christian Harmon G | 27 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Jalen Hampton G | 25 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Royal Blue Smith G | 16 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Grayson Bennett, CJ Geathers, Joey Chammaa, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks F | 34 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-1 |
| Curt Lewis G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 4-6 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 23 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Djahi Binet F | 22 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Israel Hart G | 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brewer Carruth G | 25 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Tegra Izay C | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Robert Cowherd G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| EJ Paymon F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Isaac Taveras, Blake Lander, IJ Ezuma, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -2.5
1 → USM
CloseARST -1.5
1 pt toward USM
Total
Open156.5
▼ 1
Close155.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
ARST -130 · USM +110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -2.5 · closed ARST -1.5 · moved 1 toward USMmodel ARST -2
model ARST -2
Opened 156.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 downmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARST -1.5 | ARST -2.0 | ARST +0.5 | W ARST covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 158.9 | Over 3.4 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ARST 80.5 · USM 78.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ARST -1.3 | ARST -7.0 |
| 1H total | 74.4 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | ARST 37.9 · USM 36.5 | ARST 39 · USM 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| USM | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
ARST 3–3 USMSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · ARST has won the last 3 meetings · ARST 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | USM 67 @ ARST 101 | ARST -15.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | ARST 81 @ USM 68 | USM +9.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | USM 71 @ ARST 78 | ARST -4.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | ARST 66 @ USM 69 | USM +2.5 | USM W |
| Jan 26, 2022-23 | ARST 57 @ USM 73 | USM -11.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas St
11 games played
Straight up
7-4
64% wins
Against the spread
8-3
73% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @ TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
covered 8didn’t cover 3avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
over 6under 5avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Southern Miss
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
4-6
40% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
covered 4didn’t cover 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
over 5under 5avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas St
7-4 overall · 1-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Texas St89–70
- L@ Rice76–77
- W@ Little Rock90–78
- Wvs UT Arlington83–63
- Wvs N Dakota St85–80
3 days since their last game.
Southern Miss
5-5 overall · 1-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisiana62–54
- Lvs Ole Miss67–71
- Wvs Grambling68–60
- L@ Miami64–88
- W@ Radford82–75
2 days since their last game.