UT Martin Skyhawks vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 5:30 PM ETPensacola Bay Center · Neutral site

#341UTMUT Martin60final

Final

Closing lineUTM -1.5✓ USM covered by 11.5

Closing total146.5Under by 16.5

Season records: UT Martin and Southern Miss
UTM	This season	USM
3-1	Record	1-3
3-1	ATS	1-3
2-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTM 77–77 USM · ✓ USM (50%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTM	22	38	60
USM	41	29	70

1st half: UTM 22, USM 41 (USM by 19). The model had UTM by 0.1 and a total of 71.8 (actual 63).

Team stats

UTM		USM
21-46 46%	Field goals	28-54 52%
7-21 33%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
11-20 55%	Free throws	8-15 53%
27 9 off	Rebounds	34 13 off
10	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
3	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	8
12	Fouls	18
24	Points in paint	40
2	Fast-break points	7

Players

UTM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Filip Petkovski G	30	3	5	2	1-3	1-3
Afan Trnka G	23	2	0	0	1-3	0-2
Andrija Bukumirovic F	22	4	6	1	1-5	1-4
Matas Deniusas F	20	5	1	0	2-5	1-2
Dragos Lungu G	15	11	3	0	5-8	0-2
Bench
Damien King G	20	11	0	3	2-4	1-2
Luca Colceag F	18	5	5	1	2-2	1-1
AJ Hopkins F	17	1	2	2	0-3	0-1
Lamine Niang C	15	8	1	1	4-6	0-0
Pedro Santos G	10	5	1	0	2-6	1-3
Ama Sow F	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ty Price G	2	5	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Will Hopkins, Vladimir Khryapa, Charlie King, James Bass, Enrique Moya, Filip Radakovic, Lucas Williams

USM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Brumfield G	36	6	3	0	1-8	0-1
Tylik Weeks F	34	14	7	3	7-9	0-0
Curt Lewis G	33	9	6	0	3-6	3-6
Djahi Binet F	26	14	5	1	6-8	0-0
Isaac Taveras G	20	10	5	1	5-7	0-0
Bench
Israel Hart G	20	9	2	3	3-10	3-7
Tegra Izay C	10	8	4	0	3-3	0-0
Chiante' Tramble G	4	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Felipe Patino G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Fallou Diagne C	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Brewer Carruth G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
EJ Paymon F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
IJ Ezuma F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dalyn Brandon G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Robert Cowherd, Chandler Watts, Blake Lander

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTM -1.5	USM -0.1	USM +1.6	W USM covered
Total	146.5	153.2	Over 6.7	L Under
Projected score	—	UTM 76.5 · USM 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTM -0.1	USM -19.0
1H total	71.8	63
1H projected score	UTM 35.9 · USM 35.8	UTM 22 · USM 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTM WWWL	3-1	75%	0-1	0-1
USM LWLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: UTM neutral site, as favorite; USM neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTM OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1
USM OOUO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTMlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
USMlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Martin

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +11 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UNLV	W 86-81	+16.5	W +21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 12	@BRAD	W 78-67	+15.5	W +26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 18	@FSU	L 73-87	+19.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 160
Nov 22	vsPV	W 69-68	-10.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNLV

W 86-81

+21.5

BRAD

W 78-67

+26.5

FSU

L 73-87

+5.5

W 69-68

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNLV

W 86-81

+20.5

BRAD

W 78-67

+0.5

FSU

L 73-87

−5.5

W 69-68

−18.5

over 2under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Southern Miss

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

over 3under 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UT Martin Skyhawks vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Martin

Southern Miss

UT Martin

Southern Miss