Mitchell Center · at South Alabama · Conference game
Closing line
TROY -2.5✓ USA covered by 13.5
TROY -2.5✓ USA covered by 13.5Closing total142.5Under by 23.5
| TROY | This season | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 16-10 | Record | 17-9 |
| 15-11 | ATS | 14-12 |
| 12-14 | O/U | 15-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TROY 75–74 USA · ✗ TROY (53%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 26 | 28 | 54 |
| USA | 33 | 32 | 65 |
1st half: TROY 26, USA 33 (USA by 7). The model had TROY by 0.7 and a total of 69.8 (actual 59).
Team stats
| TROY | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-53 25% | Field goals | 24-55 44% |
| 10-42 24% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 9-13 69% |
| 39 15 off | Rebounds | 35 9 off |
| 7 | Assists | 12 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 40 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 2-10 | 2-10 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 35 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 8-19 | 7-17 |
| Victor Valdes F | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 30 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0-10 | 0-10 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 24 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Cross G | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Evan Griffin F | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Javen Colbert G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Emmanuel Clarton, Theo Seng, Corbin Green, Kameryn Mitchell
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 39 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 5-9 | 3-7 |
| Chaze Harris G | 35 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 8-15 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 33 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 6-16 | 2-9 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 31 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Randy Brady F | 27 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stephen Williams F | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| John Broom G | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Samuel Shoptaw, Maxwell Land, Peyton Law, Desmond Williams, Brian Hawthorne
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -3.5
1 → USA
CloseTROY -2.5
1 pt toward USA
Total
Open141.5
▲ 1
Close142.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
TROY -135 · USA +114
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -3.5 · closed TROY -2.5 · moved 1 toward USAmodel TROY -1
model TROY -1
Opened 141.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TROY -2.5 | TROY -1.0 | USA +1.5 | W USA covered |
| Total | 142.5 | 149.1 | Over 6.6 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | TROY 75 · USA 74 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TROY -0.7 | USA -7.0 |
| 1H total | 69.8 | 59 |
| 1H projected score | TROY 35.2 · USA 34.5 | TROY 26 · USA 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| USA | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TROY 5–4 USATROY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings · TROY 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | USA 49 @ TROY 59 | TROY -9.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | USA 55 @ TROY 65 | TROY -3.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | TROY 63 @ USA 64 | USA -3.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | USA 79 @ TROY 83 | TROY -8.5 | USA W |
| Jan 18, 2023-24 | TROY 71 @ USA 74 | USA -0.5 | USA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Troy
26 games played
Straight up
16-10
62% wins
Against the spread
15-11
58% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-14
46% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vs TXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vsUSA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARST | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | @ UL | W 90-70 | -9.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | vs USM | W 91-65 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | vsARST | W 99-74 | -3.5 | W +21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 21 | @ ODU | W 83-77 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ GASO | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 29 | vs JMU | L 64-73 | -9.5 | L −18.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | vs APP | L 44-66 | -7.5 | L −29.5 | 137.5 | U 110 |
| Feb 4 | @ GAST | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 7 | vs AKR | W 79-69 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 11 | @TXST | L 62-74 | -5.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | @USM | L 65-69 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 18 | @ ULM | W 77-76 | -17.5 | L −16.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−7.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+10.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+17.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+21.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+0.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+0.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−18.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−29.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
+4.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
+12.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−17.5
14
@USM
USML 65-69
−9.5
18
@ULM
ULMW 77-76
−16.5
covered 15didn’t cover 11avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−0.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+23.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+10.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+7.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+7.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+1.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−10.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−27.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
−7.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
−9.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−4.5
14
@USM
USML 65-69
−10.5
18
@ULM
ULMW 77-76
−0.5
over 12under 14avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Alabama
26 games played
Straight up
17-9
65% wins
Against the spread
14-12
54% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-11
58% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | @TXST | L 65-67 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @UL | W 63-58 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | @TROY | L 49-59 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 10 | vsGASO | W 87-71 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 15 | vsARST | W 91-87 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | vsUL | L 56-59 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 129.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 22 | @JMU | W 90-83 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 29 | vs CCU | W 53-48 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | U 101 |
| Jan 31 | vsGAST | W 69-67 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 4 | @APP | L 57-65 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 131.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 7 | vs BUF | W 81-69 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 12 | @USM | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | @ARST | W 92-88 | +8.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 16 | @MRSH | L 80-84 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 19 | vsTXST | L 82-90 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 137.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
+1.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
+1.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−0.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+13.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+8.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−12.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+11.5
29
vsCCU
CCUW 53-48
+1.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 69-67
−3.5
4
@APP
APPL 57-65
−2.5
7
vsBUF
BUFW 81-69
+8.5
12
@USM
USMW 84-78
+7.5
14
@ARST
ARSTW 92-88
+12.5
16
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+2.5
19
vsTXST
TXSTL 82-90
−11.5
covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
−4.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
−6.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−40.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+9.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+23.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−14.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+34.5
29
vsCCU
CCUW 53-48
−38.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 69-67
−4.5
4
@APP
APPL 57-65
−9.5
7
vsBUF
BUFW 81-69
+4.5
12
@USM
USMW 84-78
+26.5
14
@ARST
ARSTW 92-88
+30.5
16
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+13.5
19
vsTXST
TXSTL 82-90
+34.5
over 15under 11avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Troy
16-10 overall · 10-5 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe77–76
- L@ Southern Miss65–69
- L@ Texas St62–74
- Wvs Akron79–69
- W@ Georgia St74–63
3 days since their last game.
South Alabama
17-9 overall · 9-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Texas St82–90
- L@ Marshall80–84
- W@ Arkansas St92–88
- W@ Southern Miss84–78
- Wvs Buffalo81–69
2 days since their last game.