Trojan Arena · at Troy · Conference game
Closing line
TROY -8.5✓ TROY covered by 17.5
TROY -8.5✓ TROY covered by 17.5Closing total145.5Over by 10.5
 USM | This season | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | Record | 9-6 |
| 7-9 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 9-7 | O/U | 8-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 74–81 TROY · ✓ TROY (74%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 26 | 39 | 65 |
| TROY | 42 | 49 | 91 |
1st half: USM 26, TROY 42 (TROY by 16). The model had TROY by 4.2 and a total of 72.7 (actual 68).
Team stats
| USM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-57 44% | Field goals | 34-65 52% |
| 3-20 15% | 3-pointers | 11-25 44% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 33 12 off | Rebounds | 34 12 off |
| 7 | Assists | 13 |
| 4 | Steals | 14 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 31 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 28 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Curt Lewis G | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Djahi Binet F | 25 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-1 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Israel Hart G | 19 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Tegra Izay C | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| EJ Paymon F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Robert Cowherd G | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Felipe Patino G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Isaac Taveras, Blake Lander, IJ Ezuma, Chandler Watts
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 33 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Victor Valdes F | 30 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 28 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 27 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 11-16 | 6-9 |
| Theo Seng F | 26 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kerrington Kiel F | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| Austin Cross G | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Evan Griffin F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Corbin Green F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Javen Colbert G | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Hikaru Awata G | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kameryn Mitchell G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Emmanuel Clarton G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -8.5
no move
CloseTROY -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
no move
Close145.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
USM +350 · TROY -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -8.5 · unchangedmodel TROY -7
model TROY -7
Opened 145.5 · unchangedmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TROY -8.5 | TROY -7.2 | USM +1.3 | L TROY covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 155.3 | Over 9.8 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | USM 74 · TROY 81.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TROY -4.2 | TROY -16.0 |
| 1H total | 72.7 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | USM 34.3 · TROY 38.5 | USM 26 · TROY 42 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| TROY | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
USM 3–3 TROYSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings · USM 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | TROY 70 @ USM 58 | USM +9.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | USM 61 @ TROY 70 | TROY -11.5 | USM W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | TROY 63 @ USM 64 | USM +1.5 | USM W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | USM 56 @ TROY 82 | TROY -5 | TROY W |
| Feb 2, 2022-23 | USM 74 @ TROY 65 | TROY -0.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
over 9under 7avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Troy
15 games played
Straight up
9-6
60% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +12.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vsTXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs USA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 7 | @ARST | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | @UL | W 90-70 | -9.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−7.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+10.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−0.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+23.5
over 8under 7avg +12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
9-7 overall · 5-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UL Monroe70–60
- Wvs Texas St80–70
- W@ Louisiana74–67
- W@ UL Monroe87–73
- L@ LSU62–90
4 days since their last game.
Troy
9-6 overall · 4-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Louisiana90–70
- L@ Arkansas St74–86
- Wvs South Alabama59–49
- Wvs Texas St100–80
- Wvs Marshall70–63
4 days since their last game.