Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ETCajundome · at Louisiana · Conference game

Final

Closing lineUSM -3.5✓ USM covered by 3.5

Closing total129.5Over by 11.5

Season records: Southern Miss and Louisiana
USM	This season	UL
6-7	Record	3-12
5-8	ATS	7-8
7-6	O/U	4-11

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USM 69–65 UL · ✓ USM (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USM	33	41	74
UL	27	40	67

1st half: USM 33, UL 27 (USM by 6). The model had USM by 3.0 and a total of 62.7 (actual 60).

Team stats

USM		UL
23-45 51%	Field goals	24-55 44%
3-13 23%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
25-30 83%	Free throws	12-16 75%
30 8 off	Rebounds	24 9 off
11	Assists	10
9	Steals	5
3	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	14
15	Fouls	20
38	Points in paint	24
6	Fast-break points	8

Players

USM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Brumfield G	40	15	2	4	7-10	0-0
Djahi Binet F	35	24	8	0	7-9	0-0
Tylik Weeks F	28	12	7	1	3-9	0-1
Brewer Carruth G	19	2	5	0	0-1	0-1
Curt Lewis G	13	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Israel Hart G	27	11	4	4	2-7	2-6
Chiante' Tramble G	21	5	2	1	2-3	0-0
Fallou Diagne C	12	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
Tegra Izay C	5	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Dalyn Brandon, Jett Montgomery, EJ Paymon, Isaac Taveras, Blake Lander, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
De'vion Lavergne G	35	18	5	3	8-13	2-3
Dorian Finister G	33	13	6	1	5-12	2-5
Joshua Lewis F	26	12	5	1	4-7	2-3
Milan Mejia G	21	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Todd Jones Jr. F	20	4	2	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Olvera G	28	9	0	2	3-15	1-8
Jeremiah Evans F	14	6	1	0	1-1	0-0
Dariyus Woodson F	11	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Karris Bilal G	8	2	0	0	0-1	0-0
Kyran Ratliff F	3	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Mike Collins G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Logan Myers, Rahman Olajuwon, Sean Elkinton, Michael Mouton, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Jamyron Keller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USM -3.5	USM -4.8	USM +1.3	W USM covered
Total	129.5	133.7	Over 4.2	W Over
Projected score	—	USM 69.2 · UL 64.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USM -3.0	USM -6.0
1H total	62.7	60
1H projected score	USM 32.8 · UL 29.8	USM 33 · UL 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WLLLW	5-8	38%	3-4	1-3
UL LWWWL	7-8	47%	4-2	4-7

Venue/role: USM away, as favorite; UL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UUOUO	7-6	54%	6-7
UL UUOUU	4-11	27%	3-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UL	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

USM 4–4 ULSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · USM 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 18, 2025-26	UL 54 @ USM 62	USM -11.5	UL W
Feb 22, 2024-25	UL 62 @ USM 60	USM -4.5	UL W
Jan 25, 2024-25	USM 67 @ UL 59	UL +1.5	USM W
Mar 1, 2023-24	USM 61 @ UL 77	UL -8.5	UL W
Feb 24, 2023-24	UL 71 @ USM 82	USM +2.5	USM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Miss

13 games played

Straight up

6-7

46% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-746%

L L L W W W L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

L W L L W W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

O O U O U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsUTM	W 70-60	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 3	@RAD	W 82-75	+3.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 6	@MIA	L 64-88	+19.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 8	vsGRAM	W 68-60	-8.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsMISS	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsUL	W 62-54	-11.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsARST	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 29	@LSU	L 62-90	+21.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 1	@ULM	W 87-73	-9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

UTM

W 70-60

+11.5

RAD

W 82-75

+10.5

MIA

L 64-88

−4.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−0.5

MISS

L 67-71

+8.5

W 62-54

−3.5

ARST

L 86-93

−5.5

LSU

L 62-90

−6.5

ULM

W 87-73

+4.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

UTM

W 70-60

−16.5

RAD

W 82-75

+4.5

MIA

L 64-88

+6.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−14.5

MISS

L 67-71

−0.5

W 62-54

−16.5

ARST

L 86-93

+23.5

LSU

L 62-90

−2.5

ULM

W 87-73

+7.5

over 7under 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-11

27% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-847%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-1127%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

over 4under 11avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Miss @ Louisiana

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Miss

Louisiana

Southern Miss

Louisiana