Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ETThe HTC Center · at Coastal · Conference game

#208GASTGeorgia St89▲ winner

Final

#283CCUCoastal71final

Closing lineCCU -6.5✓ GAST covered by 24.5

Closing total148.5Over by 11.5

Season records: Georgia St and Coastal
GAST	This season	CCU
2-11	Record	7-7
5-8	ATS	7-7
4-9	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GAST 70–75 CCU · ✗ CCU (70%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GAST	25	64	89
CCU	34	37	71

1st half: GAST 25, CCU 34 (CCU by 9). The model had CCU by 3.4 and a total of 67.9 (actual 59).

Team stats

GAST		CCU
29-59 49%	Field goals	24-61 39%
17-30 57%	3-pointers	9-29 31%
14-14 100%	Free throws	14-17 82%
32 8 off	Rebounds	38 16 off
18	Assists	9
6	Steals	2
2	Blocks	2
7	Turnovers	12
14	Fouls	14
8	Points in paint	26
7	Fast-break points	7

Players

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jelani Hamilton G	35	22	3	3	7-13	4-7
Malachi Brown G	31	23	4	3	8-14	5-9
Micah Tucker G	29	10	1	7	3-7	2-5
Anthony Enoh F	20	4	6	1	1-6	0-0
James Cooper F	12	0	4	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Trey Scott F	32	22	4	1	7-9	4-4
Jakai Newton G	17	3	5	1	1-2	1-1
Ayouba Berthe G	16	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
Joah Chappelle F	8	2	1	1	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Christian Beam, Chris Jones, Kwame Tanic, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos, Isaiah Sherrard

CCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rasheed Jones G	35	18	2	2	5-13	3-8
Nadjrick Peat F	30	4	3	0	1-1	0-0
AJ Dancler G	30	16	4	1	6-14	2-5
Joshua Beadle G	29	2	4	6	1-10	0-3
Reggie Hill F	13	4	3	0	1-3	0-2
Bench
Tristan Thompson G	17	4	2	0	2-2	0-0
Braeden MacVicar F	16	6	7	0	2-7	2-7
DaJohn Craig G	15	8	2	0	3-6	2-4
Derrick Green F	8	7	7	0	2-3	0-0
Jerry Ngopot F	7	2	1	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Devin Brown, Charles Dunlap, Jackson Keil, Connor Martin, Andre Mulibea

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CCU -6.5	CCU -5.9	GAST +0.6	W GAST covered
Total	148.5	144.9	Under 3.6	L Over
Projected score	—	GAST 69.5 · CCU 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CCU -3.4	CCU -9.0
1H total	67.9	59
1H projected score	GAST 32.3 · CCU 35.6	GAST 25 · CCU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWLWW	5-8	38%	4-5	5-7
CCU LLWWL	7-7	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; CCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OOUUO	4-9	31%	2-11
CCU UUOUO	7-7	50%	7-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CCU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

GAST 4–4 CCUSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · GAST 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2024-25	GAST 74 @ CCU 80	CCU +3.5	CCU W
Jan 11, 2024-25	CCU 74 @ GAST 79	GAST -3.5	GAST W
Feb 21, 2023-24	CCU 71 @ GAST 72	GAST -10.5	CCU W
Jan 27, 2023-24	GAST 83 @ CCU 85	CCU +3.5	CCU W
Feb 16, 2022-23	GAST 68 @ CCU 77	CCU -0.5	CCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

13 games played

Straight up

2-11

15% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1115%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

over 4under 9avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coastal

14 games played

Straight up

7-7

50% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-750%

L W L W W L W L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-750%

L W W W W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-750%

O U O O U U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WMU	L 71-76	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 11	vsWIN	W 72-66	+2.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 14	@JXST	L 67-74	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 21	@WIU	W 84-64	-3.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsUND	W 75-58	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@ILST	L 42-94	+12.5	L −39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsAAMU	W 67-60	-7.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	@UPST	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WIN	W 88-84	+16.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 13	@GCU	L 61-82	+17.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 18	@APP	L 49-67	+4.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ODU	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@JOES	W 68-62	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 1	vsGASO	L 81-82	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

−2.5

WIN

W 72-66

+8.5

JXST

L 67-74

+0.5

WIU

W 84-64

+16.5

UND

W 75-58

+13.5

ILST

L 42-94

−39.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−0.5

UPST

L 78-85

−4.5

WIN

W 88-84

+20.5

GCU

L 61-82

−3.5

APP

L 49-67

−13.5

ODU

W 76-74

+5.5

JOES

W 68-62

+13.5

GASO

L 81-82

−2.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

+0.5

WIN

W 72-66

−27.5

JXST

L 67-74

+1.5

WIU

W 84-64

+9.5

UND

W 75-58

−14.5

ILST

L 42-94

−10.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−13.5

UPST

L 78-85

+18.5

WIN

W 88-84

+18.5

GCU

L 61-82

−0.5

APP

L 49-67

−21.5

ODU

W 76-74

+2.5

JOES

W 68-62

−14.5

GASO

L 81-82

+5.5

over 7under 7avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

Coastal

Georgia St

Coastal