Pete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU
Closing line
LSU -21.5✓ LSU covered by 6.5
LSU -21.5✓ LSU covered by 6.5Closing total154.5Under by 2.5
 USM | This season | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | Record | 11-1 |
| 4-7 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 69–89 LSU · ✓ LSU (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 30 | 32 | 62 |
| LSU | 41 | 49 | 90 |
1st half: USM 30, LSU 41 (LSU by 11). The model had LSU by 12.3 and a total of 74.0 (actual 71).
Team stats
| USM | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-62 31% | Field goals | 32-62 52% |
| 3-15 20% | 3-pointers | 8-26 31% |
| 21-29 72% | Free throws | 18-25 72% |
| 39 15 off | Rebounds | 43 10 off |
| 12 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 11 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 22 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks F | 27 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-0 |
| Curt Lewis G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Djahi Binet F | 14 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tegra Izay C | 20 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Israel Hart G | 18 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| EJ Paymon F | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Robert Cowherd G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Felipe Patino G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Isaac Taveras, Jett Montgomery, Blake Lander, Chandler Watts, IJ Ezuma
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedan Thomas Jr. G | 35 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 8-11 | 2-2 |
| Marquel Sutton F | 34 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-5 |
| Max Mackinnon G | 28 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6-16 | 3-9 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 26 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 10-13 | 0-0 |
| Pablo Tamba F | 25 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Reece G | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Robert Miller III F | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PJ Carter G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Rashad King G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Mazi Mosley G | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Ron Zipper G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Bobbett G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matt Gilhool, Jalen Reed
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLSU -18.5
3 → LSU
CloseLSU -21.5
3 pts toward LSU
Total
Open153.5
▲ 1
Close154.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +1500 · LSU -3600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LSU -18.5 · closed LSU -21.5 · moved 3 toward LSUmodel LSU -20.5
model LSU -20.5
Opened 153.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU -21.5 | LSU -20.7 | USM +0.8 | L LSU covered |
| Total | 154.5 | 158.1 | Over 3.6 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | USM 68.7 · LSU 89.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LSU -12.3 | LSU -11.0 |
| 1H total | 74.0 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | USM 30.9 · LSU 43.1 | USM 30 · LSU 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| LSU | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
4-7
36% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 7avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
over 6under 5avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
LSU
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vs NOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs TTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs SMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs SELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
over 7under 5avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
5-6 overall · 1-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Arkansas St86–93
- Wvs Louisiana62–54
- Lvs Ole Miss67–71
- Wvs Grambling68–60
- L@ Miami64–88
A week or more of rest.
LSU
11-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Prairie View104–90
- Wvs SE Louisiana78–65
- Wvs SMU89–77
- Lvs Texas Tech58–82
- W@ Boston College78–69
A week or more of rest.