DePaul Blue Demons vs LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 7:00 PM ETRaider Arena · Neutral site

#66DEPDePaul63final

Final

#51LSULSU96▲ winner

Closing lineLSU -5.5✓ LSU covered by 27.5

Closing total152.5Over by 6.5

Season records: DePaul and LSU
DEP	This season	LSU
5-2	Record	6-0
5-2	ATS	3-3
3-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DEP 75–84 LSU · ✓ LSU (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DEP	22	41	63
LSU	50	46	96

1st half: DEP 22, LSU 50 (LSU by 28). The model had LSU by 5.4 and a total of 74.3 (actual 72).

Team stats

DEP		LSU
22-52 42%	Field goals	35-51 69%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	5-13 38%
12-23 52%	Free throws	21-26 81%
19 8 off	Rebounds	37 8 off
14	Assists	22
7	Steals	7
3	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	15
25	Fouls	21
16	Points in paint	54
2	Fast-break points	15

Players

DEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Gunn G	23	9	3	2	3-9	1-3
NJ Benson F	20	5	4	1	2-5	0-0
Theo Pierre-Justin F	17	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Layden Blocker G	12	6	0	1	3-5	0-1
Brandon Maclin G	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
RJ Smith G	33	9	1	3	3-10	1-7
Kruz McClure G	30	22	1	3	6-11	3-6
Kaleb Banks F	18	6	4	0	2-4	2-4
Jeremy Lorenz F	18	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Ilija Milijasevic G	9	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Fabian Flores C	7	2	1	1	1-3	0-0
Khaman Maker C	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonas Johnson, Amsal Delalic, Isaiah Medina, Nate Kasher

LSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Pablo Tamba F	29	14	7	1	4-4	0-0
Max Mackinnon G	28	13	3	1	4-7	3-4
Mike Nwoko F	22	13	6	3	5-7	0-1
Dedan Thomas Jr. G	20	12	2	5	5-7	1-1
Marquel Sutton F	19	8	5	0	4-6	0-1
Bench
Rashad King G	26	11	4	3	4-8	1-3
Jalen Reece G	20	13	2	6	6-6	0-0
Robert Miller III F	20	12	3	0	3-3	0-0
PJ Carter G	9	0	0	1	0-2	0-2
Mazi Mosley G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ron Zipper G	3	0	1	2	0-0	0-0
Jaden Bobbett G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Matt Gilhool, Jalen Reed

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LSU -5.5	LSU -9.3	LSU +3.8	W LSU covered
Total	152.5	158.8	Over 6.3	W Over
Projected score	—	DEP 74.8 · LSU 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -5.4	LSU -28.0
1H total	74.3	72
1H projected score	DEP 34.5 · LSU 39.9	DEP 22 · LSU 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DEP LWWWW	5-2	71%	1-0	1-0
LSU WLLWL	3-3	50%	0-1	3-3

Venue/role: DEP neutral site, as underdog; LSU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEP UOUOU	3-4	43%	5-2
LSU UOOOU	4-2	67%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEPlast 7	5-2 71%	5-2 71%	3-4 43%
LSUlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

DePaul

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsGWEB	W 93-62	-21.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsDETM	W 95-75	-19.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 28	vsGT	W 75-61	-1.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

GWEB

W 93-62

+9.5

DETM

W 95-75

+0.5

W 75-61

+12.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

GWEB

W 93-62

−0.5

DETM

W 95-75

+18.5

W 75-61

−11.5

over 3under 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

over 4under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

DePaul Blue Demons vs LSU Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

DePaul

LSU

DePaul

LSU