South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 1:00 PM ETCajundome · at Louisiana · Conference game

Final

Closing lineUSA -3.5✓ USA covered by 1.5

Closing total127.5Under by 6.5

Season records: South Alabama and Louisiana
USA	This season	UL
8-4	Record	3-11
5-7	ATS	7-7
7-5	O/U	4-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USA 68–63 UL · ✓ USA (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USA	31	32	63
UL	30	28	58

1st half: USA 31, UL 30 (USA by 1). The model had USA by 3.0 and a total of 61.4 (actual 61).

Team stats

USA		UL
20-45 44%	Field goals	20-57 35%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	13-40 33%
17-20 85%	Free throws	5-7 71%
35 10 off	Rebounds	29 12 off
10	Assists	16
4	Steals	3
1	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	8
11	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	12
12	Fast-break points	0

Players

USA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Randy Brady F	33	3	8	2	0-3	0-3
Adam Olsen F	33	26	2	0	7-13	2-6
Chaze Harris G	33	12	4	4	4-8	1-1
Jayden Cooper G	26	3	5	0	1-6	0-2
Hantz Louis-Jeune G	23	3	5	2	1-5	1-4
Bench
John Broom G	21	5	3	1	2-2	1-1
Brian Hawthorne G	18	3	2	1	1-3	1-1
Stephen Williams F	10	8	2	0	4-5	0-0
JJ Wheat G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Samuel Shoptaw, Desmond Williams, Peyton Law, Maxwell Land

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dorian Finister G	33	17	6	1	5-10	3-6
De'vion Lavergne G	32	5	4	6	2-9	1-6
Milan Mejia G	32	3	0	2	1-6	1-6
Joshua Lewis F	20	11	4	0	4-6	3-4
Todd Jones Jr. F	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Olvera G	34	18	1	7	6-18	5-15
Jeremiah Evans F	18	2	6	0	1-3	0-0
Dariyus Woodson F	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Karris Bilal G	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Kyran Ratliff F	5	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Michael Mouton, Christian Landry, Sean Elkinton, Zeke Cook, Mike Collins, Logan Myers, Rahman Olajuwon, Jamyron Keller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USA -3.5	USA -4.8	USA +1.3	W USA covered
Total	127.5	130.9	Over 3.4	L Under
Projected score	—	USA 67.9 · UL 63

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USA -3.0	USA -1.0
1H total	61.4	61
1H projected score	USA 32.2 · UL 29.2	USA 31 · UL 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WLLLW	5-7	42%	4-3	1-5
UL WLWWW	7-7	50%	4-1	4-6

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; UL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOUOU	7-5	58%	8-4
UL OUUOU	4-10	29%	3-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UL	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

USA 3–5 ULUL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · USA has won the last 2 meetings · USA 2-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 28, 2024-25	UL 42 @ USA 65	USA -12.5	USA W
Feb 1, 2024-25	USA 62 @ UL 58	UL +6.5	UL W
Feb 3, 2023-24	USA 60 @ UL 80	UL -7.5	UL W
Jan 20, 2023-24	UL 88 @ USA 79	USA PK	UL W
Mar 6, 2022-23	USA 66 vs UL 71	UL -1.5	UL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Alabama

12 games played

Straight up

8-4

67% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-467%

W W W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-742%

W L L L W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-558%

U O U O O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TOL	W 76-74	+2.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 6	vsALCN	W 76-70	-18.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 13	vsCMU	W 66-64	-5.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsCOPP	W 72-62	-18.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 19	@JXST	W 71-65	+2.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 21	@UAB	L 72-80	+7.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 30	@UTSA	W 82-58	-1.5	W +22.5	141.5	U 140
Dec 2	vsNMSU	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 5	@ETSU	L 65-91	+7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 14	vsUNT	L 57-58	-1.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	@ULM	W 96-92	-9.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	@TXST	L 65-67	+3.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

+4.5

ALCN

W 76-70

−12.5

CMU

W 66-64

−3.5

COPP

W 72-62

−8.5

JXST

W 71-65

+8.5

UAB

L 72-80

−0.5

UTSA

W 82-58

+22.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+4.5

ETSU

L 65-91

−18.5

UNT

L 57-58

−2.5

ULM

W 96-92

−5.5

TXST

L 65-67

+1.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

−0.5

ALCN

W 76-70

+4.5

CMU

W 66-64

−12.5

COPP

W 72-62

+0.5

JXST

W 71-65

+0.5

UAB

L 72-80

+2.5

UTSA

W 82-58

−1.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+16.5

ETSU

L 65-91

+12.5

UNT

L 57-58

−20.5

ULM

W 96-92

+39.5

TXST

L 65-67

−4.5

over 7under 5avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-750%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1029%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

over 4under 10avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Alabama @ Louisiana

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

South Alabama

Louisiana

South Alabama

Louisiana