Mitchell Center · at South Alabama · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -4.5✓ USA covered by 8.5
ARST -4.5✓ USA covered by 8.5Closing total154.5Over by 23.5
| ARST | This season | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | Record | 10-5 |
| 10-5 | ATS | 7-8 |
| 8-7 | O/U | 8-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARST 79–76 USA · ✗ ARST (59%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 36 | 45 | 6 | 87 |
| USA | 32 | 49 | 10 | 91 |
1st half: ARST 36, USA 32 (ARST by 4). The model had ARST by 1.7 and a total of 72.4 (actual 68).
Team stats
| ARST | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-72 43% | Field goals | 32-69 46% |
| 13-44 30% | 3-pointers | 6-27 22% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 21-30 70% |
| 51 16 off | Rebounds | 33 6 off |
| 20 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 11 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Jackson G | 28 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 28 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 5-11 | 3-9 |
| Christian Harmon G | 24 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2-9 | 1-8 |
| Chudi Dioramma F | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Hampton G | 18 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 31 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 8-14 | 1-3 |
| Royal Blue Smith G | 26 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 6-14 | 6-13 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 20 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Joey Chammaa G | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-6 |
Did not play: Grayson Bennett, CJ Geathers, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews, Fredy-Salam Sylla, Rho Omed
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 40 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4-12 | 2-7 |
| Chaze Harris G | 40 | 38 | 6 | 5 | 14-25 | 0-4 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 38 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 34 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Randy Brady F | 27 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| John Broom G | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Stephen Williams F | 16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Maxwell Land, Samuel Shoptaw, Brian Hawthorne, Desmond Williams, Peyton Law
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -3.5
1 → ARST
CloseARST -4.5
1 pt toward ARST
Total
Open153.5
▲ 1
Close154.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ARST -192 · USA +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -3.5 · closed ARST -4.5 · moved 1 toward ARSTmodel ARST -2.5
model ARST -2.5
Opened 153.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 upmodel 154.5 matches the line
model 154.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARST -4.5 | ARST -2.6 | USA +1.9 | W USA covered |
| Total | 154.5 | 154.6 | Over 0.1 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ARST 78.6 · USA 76 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ARST -1.7 | ARST -4.0 |
| 1H total | 72.4 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | ARST 37 · USA 35.3 | ARST 36 · USA 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| USA | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
ARST 3–5 USAUSA leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ARST 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | ARST 74 vs USA 71 | USA +3.5 | USA W |
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | USA 60 @ ARST 56 | ARST -7.5 | USA W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | ARST 62 @ USA 76 | USA -0.5 | USA W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | USA 78 @ ARST 95 | ARST -8.5 | ARST W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | ARST 76 @ USA 73 | USA +2.5 | ARST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas St
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
10-5
67% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @ TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @ USM | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs JMU | L 74-78 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vs TROY | W 86-74 | -4.5 | W +7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | vsTXST | W 83-82 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+5.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−14.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
+7.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
−10.5
covered 10didn’t cover 5avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+23.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−6.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
−0.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
+8.5
over 8under 7avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Alabama
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | @TXST | L 65-67 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @ UL | W 63-58 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | @TROY | L 49-59 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 10 | vs GASO | W 87-71 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
+1.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
+1.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−0.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+13.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
−4.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
−6.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−40.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+9.5
over 8under 7avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas St
10-5 overall · 4-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas St83–82
- Wvs Troy86–74
- Lvs James Madison74–78
- W@ Southern Miss93–86
- W@ Texas St89–70
5 days since their last game.
South Alabama
10-5 overall · 3-2 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs GA Southern87–71
- L@ Troy49–59
- W@ Louisiana63–58
- L@ Texas St65–67
- W@ UL Monroe96–92
5 days since their last game.