1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. UAB @ TROY
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

UAB Blazers at Troy Trojans

Trojan Arena · at Troy
#102UABUAB
@
#147TROYTroy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UABThis seasonTROY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UAB 78–76 · win probability UAB 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UAB 3, TROY 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TROYSmall
Three-pointers
UAB hits 27.8% and allows 32.6%; TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 30.5% and 45.9% of their shots
UABSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAB 12.6%, TROY 17.3%. Forced: UAB 16.1%, TROY 16.7%
UABSmall
UAB offense vs TROY defense
Offense 82nd of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
UABSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAB 32.5%, TROY 34.5%. Defensive: UAB 72.3%, TROY 68.3%
TROYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAB 48.4 and allows 50.0; TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2
TROYSmall
Home court
TROY at home. This season: TROY 0-0 at home, UAB 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UAB plays 71.2 a game (61st fastest), TROY 69.6 (141st). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UAB has played the 129th-hardest schedule, TROY the 166th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAB 36.4, TROY 36.2. Allowed: UAB 28.6, TROY 31.4
Even
TROY offense vs UAB defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 141st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAB 10%, TROY 11%. Transfers in: UAB 6, TROY 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UAB -1.9—
Total—153.1—
Projected score—UAB 77.5 · TROY 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUAB -1.2—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreUAB 36.4 · TROY 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UAB has the better starters

Position by position: UAB 4, Troy 1, even 0
UABBetterTroy
G J. Fernandez TR16.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 56
UABBig
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
G J. Elyzee TR11.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 61
TROYSmall
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
G D. Jones TR16.4 pts · 4 reb · 3.4 ast Score 91
UABSmall
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
G E. Duval TR15.6 pts · 4 reb · 3.5 ast Score 74
UABSmall
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
G T. Caldwell TR9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 56
UABSmall
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
UABBetterTroy
UAB offense82nd of 366 · +0.4
UABSmall
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
UAB defense141st of 366 · -3.1
Even
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
Backcourt+2.8 · 5 players
UABSmall
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 2 players
Even
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUAB betterTROY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAB
Guards
J. Fernandez37 min · TRJ. Elyzee30 min · TRD. Jones29 min · TRE. Duval27 min · TRT. Caldwell20 min · TRS. London20 min
Forwards
A. Alston8 min · TRA. Sandlin-ElNew
Centers
M. MboleNewK. DavisNew
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UABTROY
Scoring
78.2 #92Points per game77.3 #110
1.10 #141Points per possession1.11 #113
71.2 #61Pace (possessions)69.6 #141
Shooting
48.4 #305Effective FG%51.5 #171
27.8 #3643-point %33.0 #229
30.5 #3503-point attempt rate45.9 #47
36.4 #141Free throw rate36.2 #147
Possessions
12.6 #2Turnover rate17.3 #226
32.5 #104Offensive rebound rate34.5 #59
14.2 #135Assists per game15.0 #86
Defense
74.3 #168Points allowed74.5 #178
1.04 #79Points allowed per possession1.07 #128
50.0 #98Opponent effective FG%50.2 #111
32.6 #95Opponent 3-point %31.6 #47
16.1 #217Turnovers forced16.7 #173
72.3 #53Defensive rebound rate68.3 #243
7.5 #74Steals per game7.2 #107
3.5 #139Blocks per game3.3 #169
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAB

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Charlotte78–83
  • Wvs East Carolina90–83
  • W@ Charlotte80–74
  • Lvs North Texas58–62
  • W@ Memphis78–67

A week or more of rest.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.