1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UAB @ WKU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

UAB Blazers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

E.A. Diddle Arena · at Western KY
#102UABUAB
@
#129WKUWestern KY
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UABThis seasonWKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WKU 78–78 · win probability WKU 51%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UAB has more of the edges

UAB 4, WKU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UABBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAB 36.4, WKU 41.2. Allowed: UAB 28.6, WKU 46.8
UABSmall
UAB offense vs WKU defense
Offense 82nd of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings
WKUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAB 10%, WKU 44%. Transfers in: UAB 6, WKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UABSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAB 32.5%, WKU 31.8%. Defensive: UAB 72.3%, WKU 70.5%
WKUSmall
Home court
WKU at home. This season: WKU 0-0 at home, UAB 0-0 away
UABSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAB 48.4 and allows 50.0; WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2
Context
Schedule so far
UAB has played the 129th-hardest schedule, WKU the 160th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
WKU offense vs UAB defense
Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 141st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
UAB hits 27.8% and allows 32.6%; WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 30.5% and 39.5% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAB 12.6%, WKU 14.5%. Forced: UAB 16.1%, WKU 17.2%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UAB plays 71.2 a game (61st fastest), WKU 71.5 (52nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WKU -0.2—
Total—155.6—
Projected score—UAB 77.7 · WKU 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWKU -0.0—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreUAB 36.4 · WKU 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UAB 2, Western KY 2, even 1
UABBetterWestern KY
G J. Fernandez TR16.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 56
WKUBig
G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99
G J. Elyzee TR11.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 61
UABBig
G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
G D. Jones TR16.4 pts · 4 reb · 3.4 ast Score 91
UABSmall
G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61
G E. Duval TR15.6 pts · 4 reb · 3.5 ast Score 74
Even
G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64
G T. Caldwell TR9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 56
WKUSmall
F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71
UABBetterWestern KY
UAB offense82nd of 366 · +0.4
UABSmall
WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9
UAB defense141st of 366 · -3.1
Even
WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4
Backcourt+2.8 · 5 players
Even
Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench-1.4 · 2 players
UABSmall
Bench-3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUAB betterWKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAB
Guards
J. Fernandez37 min · TRJ. Elyzee30 min · TRD. Jones29 min · TRE. Duval27 min · TRT. Caldwell20 min · TRS. London20 min
Forwards
A. Alston8 min · TRA. Sandlin-ElNew
Centers
M. MboleNewK. DavisNew
Western KY
Guards
T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min
Forwards
E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UABWKU
Scoring
78.2 #92Points per game77.9 #95
1.10 #141Points per possession1.09 #163
71.2 #61Pace (possessions)71.5 #52
Shooting
48.4 #305Effective FG%47.5 #327
27.8 #3643-point %33.4 #205
30.5 #3503-point attempt rate39.5 #184
36.4 #141Free throw rate41.2 #42
Possessions
12.6 #2Turnover rate14.5 #42
32.5 #104Offensive rebound rate31.8 #134
14.2 #135Assists per game12.9 #215
Defense
74.3 #168Points allowed77.0 #241
1.04 #79Points allowed per possession1.08 #155
50.0 #98Opponent effective FG%51.2 #169
32.6 #95Opponent 3-point %34.3 #205
16.1 #217Turnovers forced17.2 #134
72.3 #53Defensive rebound rate70.5 #135
7.5 #74Steals per game7.4 #90
3.5 #139Blocks per game2.3 #327
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAB

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Charlotte78–83
  • Wvs East Carolina90–83
  • W@ Charlotte80–74
  • Lvs North Texas58–62
  • W@ Memphis78–67

A week or more of rest.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
  • L@ FIU67–92
  • L@ Missouri St74–87
  • Wvs UTEP97–65
  • Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.