Southern Utah Thunderbirds at San José State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 5:00 PM ETProvident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Utah and San José St
SUU	This season	SJSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 82–71 · win probability SJSU 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

SUU 2, SJSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SJSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SUU 20.3%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: SUU 14.8%, SJSU 17.4%

SJSUBig

SJSU offense vs SUU defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 329th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SUU plays 71.2 a game (62nd fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

SUU has played the 187th-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SJSUSmall

Three-pointers

SUU hits 33.0% and allows 38.0%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 35.5% and 38.3% of their shots

SUUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SUU 50.8 and allows 53.3; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1

SUUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SUU 33.1, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: SUU 29.8, SJSU 35.4

SJSUSmall

SUU offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 211th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

SJSUSmall

Home court

SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, SUU 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SUU 28.8%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: SUU 66.4%, SJSU 63.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SUU 27%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: SUU 1, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJSU -10.2	—
Total	—	153.0	—
Projected score	—	SUU 71.4 · SJSU 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJSU -6.0	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	SUU 32.8 · SJSU 38.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SUU WWWLL	15-14	52%	9-8	—
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	6-9	—

Venue/role: SUU away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SUU OUOOU	17-12	59%	7-22
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SUU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Utah

No more games listed yet.

San José St

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Utah

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L W W W L L W L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1452%

W L W L L W W L L L L L W W W W W L L W L L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1259%

U O O O O U U O O U U O O U O U U O U O U O O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ASU	L 64-81	+17.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 8	vsRGV	L 72-95	+1.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 15	@OMA	L 85-90	+8.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 17	@GONZ	L 50-122	+35.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 19	@WSU	L 74-98	+12.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 28	@RMU	L 54-61	+8.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 115
Nov 29	vsSTET	W 70-68	-1.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 6	@ORST	L 70-81	+10.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	@WASH	L 69-105	+25.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 174
Dec 18	@NAU	L 57-65	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 29	@UTU	L 66-80	+7.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 3	vsUTA	L 77-86	+5.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UVU	L 72-89	+18.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 10	@CBU	L 55-58	+14.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	vsTAR	W 106-105	+3.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 211
Jan 17	vsACU	W 74-52	+3.5	W +25.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 21	vsUVU	W 84-70	+12.5	W +26.5	160.5	U 154
Jan 24	@UTU	L 91-102	+6.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 193
Jan 29	@UTA	L 61-80	+9.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 31	@ACU	W 79-76	+6.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 7	vsTAR	L 59-62	+1.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 12	vsCBU	L 66-83	+5.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTA	W 78-73	+8.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 151
Feb 19	@TAR	L 74-78	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 21	@ACU	L 83-87	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsUTU	W 81-67	+1.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 5	vsUVU	L 88-92	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 180
Mar 7	vsCBU	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsUTA	L 63-69	+4.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

+0.5

RGV

L 72-95

−21.5

OMA

L 85-90

+3.5

GONZ

L 50-122

−36.5

WSU

L 74-98

−11.5

RMU

L 54-61

+1.5

STET

W 70-68

+0.5

ORST

L 70-81

−0.5

WASH

L 69-105

−10.5

NAU

L 57-65

−2.5

UTU

L 66-80

−6.5

UTA

L 77-86

−3.5

UVU

L 72-89

+1.5

CBU

L 55-58

+11.5

TAR

W 106-105

+4.5

ACU

W 74-52

+25.5

UVU

W 84-70

+26.5

UTU

L 91-102

−4.5

UTA

L 61-80

−9.5

ACU

W 79-76

+9.5

TAR

L 59-62

−1.5

CBU

L 66-83

−11.5

UTA

W 78-73

+13.5

TAR

L 74-78

+0.5

ACU

L 83-87

+4.5

UTU

W 81-67

+15.5

UVU

L 88-92

+5.5

CBU

L 75-82

−0.5

UTA

L 63-69

−1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

−6.5

RGV

L 72-95

+6.5

OMA

L 85-90

+21.5

GONZ

L 50-122

+11.5

WSU

L 74-98

+14.5

RMU

L 54-61

−37.5

STET

W 70-68

−10.5

ORST

L 70-81

+4.5

WASH

L 69-105

+20.5

NAU

L 57-65

−28.5

UTU

L 66-80

−2.5

UTA

L 77-86

+24.5

UVU

L 72-89

+6.5

CBU

L 55-58

−37.5

TAR

W 106-105

+60.5

ACU

W 74-52

−23.5

UVU

W 84-70

−6.5

UTU

L 91-102

+43.5

UTA

L 61-80

−3.5

ACU

W 79-76

+4.5

TAR

L 59-62

−28.5

CBU

L 66-83

+1.5

UTA

W 78-73

+7.5

TAR

L 74-78

+7.5

ACU

L 83-87

+26.5

UTU

W 81-67

−8.5

UVU

L 88-92

+29.5

CBU

L 75-82

+8.5

UTA

L 63-69

−9.5

over 17under 12avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San José St has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Utah 0, San José St 1, even 4

Southern UtahBetterSan José St

G B. Johnson0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

G Z. Kidd0.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

F J. Feroah14 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87

No call

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

F J. Nicholls TR10.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 95

No call

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

F C. Barclay4.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8

SJSUBig

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

Southern UtahBetterSan José St

SUU offense211th of 366 · -6.4

SJSUSmall

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

SUU defense329th of 366 · -8.6

SJSUBig

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

SUUSmall

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.8 · 3 players

SUUSmall

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestSUU betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern Utah

Guards

B. Johnson4 minZ. Kidd3 minD. SandersNewA. BrelandNewJ. BrownNewC. DegraffenriedNew

Forwards

J. Feroah31 minJ. Nicholls18 min · TRC. Barclay16 minJ. RiakNewJ. NichollsNewD. SmithNew

Centers

M. ProtsenkoNew

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SUU72.3 #235

SJSU70.8 #269

Points per possession

SUU1.01 #310

SJSU1.07 #203

Pace (possessions)

SUU71.2 #62

SJSU66.0 #315

Shooting

Effective FG%

SUU50.8 #200

SJSU49.7 #255

3-point %

SUU33.0 #231

SJSU35.3 #97

3-point attempt rate

SUU35.5 #261

SJSU38.3 #204

Free throw rate

SUU33.1 #235

SJSU33.4 #225

Possessions

Turnover rate

SUU20.3 #352

SJSU15.1 #77

Offensive rebound rate

SUU28.8 #239

SJSU29.3 #225

Assists per game

SUU12.9 #223

SJSU10.3 #353

Defense

Points allowed

SUU81.3 #335

SJSU79.2 #305

Points allowed per possession

SUU1.14 #308

SJSU1.20 #359

Opponent effective FG%

SUU53.3 #276

SJSU57.1 #359

Opponent 3-point %

SUU38.0 #358

SJSU36.0 #305

Turnovers forced

SUU14.8 #302

SJSU17.4 #123

Defensive rebound rate

SUU66.4 #309

SJSU63.5 #354

Steals per game

SUU5.2 #317

SJSU5.8 #259

Blocks per game

SUU4.1 #60

SJSU2.2 #333

SUU		SJSU
Scoring
72.3 #235	Points per game	70.8 #269
1.01 #310	Points per possession	1.07 #203
71.2 #62	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #315
Shooting
50.8 #200	Effective FG%	49.7 #255
33.0 #231	3-point %	35.3 #97
35.5 #261	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #204
33.1 #235	Free throw rate	33.4 #225
Possessions
20.3 #352	Turnover rate	15.1 #77
28.8 #239	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #225
12.9 #223	Assists per game	10.3 #353
Defense
81.3 #335	Points allowed	79.2 #305
1.14 #308	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #359
53.3 #276	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #359
38.0 #358	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #305
14.8 #302	Turnovers forced	17.4 #123
66.4 #309	Defensive rebound rate	63.5 #354
5.2 #317	Steals per game	5.8 #259
4.1 #60	Blocks per game	2.2 #333

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Utah

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Arlington63–69
Lvs CA Baptist75–82
Lvs Utah Valley88–92
Wvs Utah Tech81–67
L@ Abilene Chrstn83–87

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at San José State Spartans

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Utah

San José St

San José St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern Utah

San José St