Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Washington State Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 11:00 PM ETBeasley Coliseum · at Washington St

Final

Closing lineWSU -12.5✓ WSU covered by 11.5

Closing total157.5Over by 14.5

Season records: Southern Utah and Washington St
SUU	This season	WSU
0-4	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	1-3
3-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SUU 73–85 WSU · ✓ WSU (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SUU	40	34	74
WSU	54	44	98

1st half: SUU 40, WSU 54 (WSU by 14). The model had WSU by 6.9 and a total of 73.7 (actual 94).

Team stats

SUU		WSU
27-56 48%	Field goals	39-68 57%
8-20 40%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
12-16 75%	Free throws	11-16 69%
26 5 off	Rebounds	36 11 off
11	Assists	16
1	Steals	7
3	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	7
17	Fouls	20
32	Points in paint	48
14	Fast-break points	2

Players

SUU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tanner Hayhurst G	25	7	2	3	3-8	1-3
Jaiden Feroah F	25	11	4	1	4-5	1-1
Isaiah Cottrell F	21	9	4	0	4-6	0-0
Elijah Duval G	20	7	3	3	2-5	0-0
Cale Barclay F	18	4	1	2	1-3	1-3
Bench
Dylan Jones G	31	24	4	1	9-16	5-10
Kai Burdick C	19	4	4	1	2-3	0-0
Zach Bell G	15	0	0	0	0-4	0-1
Lorenzo Abellar G	12	2	0	0	0-3	0-1
Jalen Lee G	11	2	1	0	0-1	0-1
Logan Stephens G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Zeplin Kidd G	1	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Langston Binns, Juok Riak, Brayden Johnson, Chuks Isitua

WSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jerone Morton G	27	10	3	5	4-8	0-3
Adria Rodriguez G	24	4	3	5	2-5	0-0
Simon Hildebrandt F	24	8	1	1	2-5	1-2
ND Okafor C	23	27	8	0	12-14	0-0
Emmanuel Ugbo F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Eemeli Yalaho F	28	14	11	0	5-7	2-3
Ace Glass G	22	20	2	3	8-13	3-7
Rihards Vavers F	20	6	2	0	2-7	2-7
Kase Wynott G	15	7	2	0	3-6	1-3
Parker Gerrits G	15	2	1	2	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Dio Blakely, Tomas Thrastarson, Brunel Madzou, Dominik Robinson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WSU -12.5	WSU -11.7	SUU +0.8	L WSU covered
Total	157.5	157.2	Under 0.3	L Over
Projected score	—	SUU 72.7 · WSU 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WSU -6.9	WSU -14.0
1H total	73.7	94
1H projected score	SUU 33.4 · WSU 40.3	SUU 40 · WSU 54

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SUU WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-2
WSU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: SUU away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SUU UOOO	3-1	75%	0-4
WSU OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SUUlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
WSUlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Utah

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ASU	L 64-81	+17.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 8	vsRGV	L 72-95	+1.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 15	@OMA	L 85-90	+8.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 17	@GONZ	L 50-122	+35.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

+0.5

RGV

L 72-95

−21.5

OMA

L 85-90

+3.5

GONZ

L 50-122

−36.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

−6.5

RGV

L 72-95

+6.5

OMA

L 85-90

+21.5

GONZ

L 50-122

+11.5

over 3under 1avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Washington St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIDHO	L 81-83	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 164
Nov 7	@DAV	L 69-85	+4.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 10	vsSTMN	W 81-71	-2.5	W +7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 14	vsWASH	L 69-81	+8.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDHO

L 81-83

−9.5

DAV

L 69-85

−11.5

STMN

W 81-71

+7.5

WASH

L 69-81

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDHO

L 81-83

+9.5

DAV

L 69-85

+0.5

STMN

W 81-71

−5.5

WASH

L 69-81

−8.5

over 2under 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Washington State Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Utah

Washington St

Southern Utah

Washington St