JMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MERC | This season | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SYR 86–60 · win probability SYR 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges
MERC 1, SYR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, SYR the 67th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SYRBigMERC offense vs SYR defense
Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings
SYRBigSYR offense vs MERC defense
Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings
SYRBigFree throws
Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, SYR 35.1. Allowed: MERC 42.6, SYR 32.6
MERCSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, SYR 15.9%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, SYR 17.4%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), SYR 69.1 (173rd). Faster games mean more points
SYRSmallShooting
Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3
SYRSmallHome court
SYR at home. This season: SYR 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, SYR 29.2%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, SYR 66.4%
Even
Three-pointers
MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 31.1% and 37.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, SYR 19%. Transfers in: MERC 3, SYR 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | SYR -25.6 | — |
| Total | — | 145.9 | — |
| Projected score | — | MERC 60.2 · SYR 85.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | SYR -15.1 | — |
| 1H total | 68.3 | — |
| 1H projected score | MERC 26.6 · SYR 41.7 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| SYR | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Next 3 games
With how the last meeting with each opponent went
MercyhurstNo more games listed yet.
SyracuseNo more games listed yet.
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MERC 0–1 SYRSYR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MERC 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025-26 | MERC 62 @ SYR 76 | SYR -24.5 | MERC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mercyhurst
32 games played
Straight up
15-17
47% wins
Against the spread
21-10
68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-16
48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ NU | L 47-70 | +26.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 6 | @ LUC | W 73-65 | +21.5 | W +29.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ CAN | L 55-58 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 15 | vs MORG | W 86-72 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 20 | @ M-OH | L 71-76 | +15.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 23 | @ MRSH | L 60-69 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 30 | @ WVU | L 38-70 | +21.5 | L −10.5 | 127.5 | U 108 |
| Dec 5 | @ LAF | L 71-79 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | @ DAV | L 47-80 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 132.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 17 | @SYR | L 62-76 | +24.5 | W +10.5 | 131.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs BING | W 82-61 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 132.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 2 | vs FDU | L 67-74 | -5.5 | L −12.5 | 133.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | vs LEM | W 74-60 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 8 | @ LIU | L 58-60 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 10 | @ WAG | W 70-69 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 132.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 17 | vs STO | L 57-62 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 128.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 19 | vs CCSU | W 79-61 | -1.5 | W +16.5 | 132.5 | O 140 |
| Jan 23 | @ NHVN | W 61-57 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 122.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 25 | vs CHST | W 61-59 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 131.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 29 | vsNHVN | W 70-51 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 122.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 31 | @CHST | L 74-78 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 129.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 5 | vs SFPA | W 98-89 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 137.5 | O 187 |
| Feb 7 | @FDU | L 52-55 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 131.5 | U 107 |
| Feb 12 | @LEM | L 57-58 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 14 | @SFPA | W 94-79 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 19 | vsWAG | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 133.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 21 | vsLIU | W 91-83 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 140.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 26 | @CCSU | L 78-80 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 28 | @STO | W 75-72 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Mar 4 | vsFDU | W 70-61 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 131.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 7 | vsSTO | W 56-51 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 107 |
| Mar 10 | @LIU | L 70-79 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 134.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@NU
NUL 47-70
+3.5
6
@LUC
LUCW 73-65
+29.5
12
@CAN
CANL 55-58
−4.5
15
vsMORG
MORGW 86-72
+7.5
20
@M-OH
M-OHL 71-76
+10.5
23
@MRSH
MRSHL 60-69
+2.5
30
@WVU
WVUL 38-70
−10.5
13
@DAV
DAVL 47-80
−21.5
17
@SYR
SYRL 62-76
+10.5
20
vsBING
BINGW 82-61
+13.5
2
vsFDU
FDUL 67-74
−12.5
4
vsLEM
LEMW 74-60
+11.5
8
@LIU
LIUL 58-60
+6.5
10
@WAG
WAGW 70-69
+2.5
17
vsSTO
STOL 57-62
−9.5
19
vsCCSU
CCSUW 79-61
+16.5
23
@NHVN
NHVNW 61-57
+2.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 61-59
−7.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 70-51
+13.5
31
@CHST
CHSTL 74-78
−6.5
5
vsSFPA
SFPAW 98-89
+2.5
7
@FDU
FDUL 52-55
−0.5
12
@LEM
LEML 57-58
+1.5
14
@SFPA
SFPAW 94-79
+12.5
19
vsWAG
WAGL 80-83
−6.5
21
vsLIU
LIUW 91-83
+11.5
26
@CCSU
CCSUL 78-80
+1.5
28
@STO
STOW 75-72
+1.5
4
vsFDU
FDUW 70-61
+5.5
7
vsSTO
STOW 56-51
+0.5
10
@LIU
LIUL 70-79
−4.5
covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NU
NUL 47-70
−23.5
6
@LUC
LUCW 73-65
−6.5
12
@CAN
CANL 55-58
−22.5
15
vsMORG
MORGW 86-72
+11.5
20
@M-OH
M-OHL 71-76
+7.5
23
@MRSH
MRSHL 60-69
−18.5
30
@WVU
WVUL 38-70
−19.5
13
@DAV
DAVL 47-80
−5.5
17
@SYR
SYRL 62-76
+6.5
20
vsBING
BINGW 82-61
+10.5
2
vsFDU
FDUL 67-74
+7.5
4
vsLEM
LEMW 74-60
−7.5
8
@LIU
LIUL 58-60
−21.5
10
@WAG
WAGW 70-69
+6.5
17
vsSTO
STOL 57-62
−9.5
19
vsCCSU
CCSUW 79-61
+7.5
23
@NHVN
NHVNW 61-57
−4.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 61-59
−11.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 70-51
−1.5
31
@CHST
CHSTL 74-78
+22.5
5
vsSFPA
SFPAW 98-89
+49.5
7
@FDU
FDUL 52-55
−24.5
12
@LEM
LEML 57-58
−23.5
14
@SFPA
SFPAW 94-79
+34.5
19
vsWAG
WAGL 80-83
+29.5
21
vsLIU
LIUW 91-83
+33.5
26
@CCSU
CCSUL 78-80
+16.5
28
@STO
STOW 75-72
+9.5
4
vsFDU
FDUW 70-61
−0.5
7
vsSTO
STOW 56-51
−27.5
10
@LIU
LIUL 70-79
+14.5
over 15under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Syracuse
32 games played
Straight up
15-17
47% wins
Against the spread
14-18
44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-15
53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsBING | W 85-47 | -21.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs DSU | W 83-43 | -26.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 15 | vs DREX | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | vs MONM | W 78-73 | -21.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 24 | vs HOU | L 74-78 | +14.5 | W +10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs KU | L 60-71 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs ISU | L 64-95 | +10.5 | L −20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs TENN | W 62-60 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 11 | vs JOES | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 13 | vs HOF | L 69-70 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 17 | vsMERC | W 76-62 | -24.5 | L −10.5 | 131.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs NE | W 91-83 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 22 | vsSTO | W 77-48 | -22.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs CLEM | L 61-64 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 6 | @ GT | W 82-72 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 10 | @ PITT | W 83-72 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 13 | vs FSU | W 94-86 | -4.5 | W +3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | @ BC | L 73-81 | -5.5 | L −13.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 21 | vs VT | L 74-76 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 24 | vs MIA | L 76-85 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 27 | @ NCSU | L 68-88 | +10.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | vs ND | W 86-72 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 2 | @ UNC | L 77-87 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | @ UVA | L 59-72 | +13.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 11 | vs CAL | W 107-100 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | O 207 |
| Feb 14 | vs SMU | W 79-78 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 16 | @ DUKE | L 64-101 | +20.5 | L −16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vsUNC | L 64-77 | -2.5 | L −15.5 | 154.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 28 | @ WAKE | L 83-88 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 3 | @ LOU | L 62-77 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 7 | vsPITT | L 69-71 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 10 | vsSMU | L 69-86 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBING
BINGW 85-47
+16.5
8
vsDSU
DSUW 83-43
+13.5
15
vsDREX
DREXW 80-50
+18.5
18
vsMONM
MONMW 78-73
−16.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 74-78
+10.5
25
vsKU
KUL 60-71
−6.5
26
vsISU
ISUL 64-95
−20.5
2
vsTENN
TENNW 62-60
+9.5
11
vsJOES
JOESW 71-63
−3.5
13
vsHOF
HOFL 69-70
−10.5
17
vsMERC
MERCW 76-62
−10.5
20
vsNE
NEW 91-83
−6.5
22
vsSTO
STOW 77-48
+6.5
31
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-64
−1.5
6
@GT
GTW 82-72
+7.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 83-72
+12.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 94-86
+3.5
17
@BC
BCL 73-81
−13.5
21
vsVT
VTL 74-76
−5.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 76-85
−7.5
27
@NCSU
NCSUL 68-88
−9.5
31
vsND
NDW 86-72
+7.5
2
@UNC
UNCL 77-87
+1.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 59-72
+0.5
11
vsCAL
CALW 107-100
+0.5
14
vsSMU
SMUW 79-78
+2.5
16
@DUKE
DUKEL 64-101
−16.5
21
vsUNC
UNCL 64-77
−15.5
28
@WAKE
WAKEL 83-88
−1.5
3
@LOU
LOUL 62-77
−0.5
7
vsPITT
PITTL 69-71
−7.5
10
vsSMU
SMUL 69-86
−13.5
covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBING
BINGW 85-47
−21.5
8
vsDSU
DSUW 83-43
−31.5
15
vsDREX
DREXW 80-50
−13.5
18
vsMONM
MONMW 78-73
+5.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 74-78
+11.5
25
vsKU
KUL 60-71
−13.5
26
vsISU
ISUL 64-95
+13.5
2
vsTENN
TENNW 62-60
−25.5
11
vsJOES
JOESW 71-63
−12.5
13
vsHOF
HOFL 69-70
−0.5
17
vsMERC
MERCW 76-62
+6.5
20
vsNE
NEW 91-83
+33.5
22
vsSTO
STOW 77-48
−15.5
31
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-64
−15.5
6
@GT
GTW 82-72
+7.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 83-72
+12.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 94-86
+19.5
17
@BC
BCL 73-81
+12.5
21
vsVT
VTL 74-76
−2.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 76-85
+11.5
27
@NCSU
NCSUL 68-88
+4.5
31
vsND
NDW 86-72
+10.5
2
@UNC
UNCL 77-87
+5.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 59-72
−16.5
11
vsCAL
CALW 107-100
+58.5
14
vsSMU
SMUW 79-78
−0.5
16
@DUKE
DUKEL 64-101
+20.5
21
vsUNC
UNCL 64-77
−13.5
28
@WAKE
WAKEL 83-88
+18.5
3
@LOU
LOUL 62-77
−20.5
7
vsPITT
PITTL 69-71
−1.5
10
vsSMU
SMUL 69-86
+0.5
over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Syracuse has the better starters
Position by position: Mercyhurst 0, Syracuse 4, even 1
MercyhurstBetterSyracuse
G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast
Score 61
→SYRSmall
G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 94
G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 6
→SYRBig
G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast
Score 82
G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast
Score 66
F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 48
→SYRSmall
F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 73
F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast
Score 2
→SYRBig
C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 75
MercyhurstBetterSyracuse
MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9
→SYRBig
SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9
MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9
→SYRBig
SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
→SYRBig
Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
→SYRBig
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
→SYRBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMERC betterSYR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MercyhurstGuards
J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew
Forwards
T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew
SyracuseGuards
G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min
Forwards
F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew
Centers
L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MERC68.3 #310SYR75.0 #163Points per possession
MERC1.04 #260SYR1.08 #174Pace (possessions)
MERC65.6 #327SYR69.1 #173Shooting
Effective FG%
MERC49.5 #269SYR52.6 #1223-point %
MERC32.1 #276SYR32.9 #2393-point attempt rate
MERC31.1 #338SYR37.1 #226Free throw rate
MERC25.6 #361SYR35.1 #171Possessions
Turnover rate
MERC14.3 #35SYR15.9 #134Offensive rebound rate
MERC26.4 #312SYR29.2 #228Assists per game
MERC14.0 #148SYR12.8 #225Defense
Points allowed
MERC68.7 #43SYR74.3 #163Points allowed per possession
MERC1.04 #76SYR1.07 #144Opponent effective FG%
MERC50.1 #107SYR50.3 #116Opponent 3-point %
MERC32.3 #80SYR34.1 #186Turnovers forced
MERC18.6 #68SYR17.4 #125Defensive rebound rate
MERC70.1 #153SYR66.4 #310Steals per game
MERC7.0 #130SYR6.2 #214Blocks per game
MERC3.8 #94SYR5.9 #4| MERC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 68.3 #310 | Points per game | 75.0 #163 |
| 1.04 #260 | Points per possession | 1.08 #174 |
| 65.6 #327 | Pace (possessions) | 69.1 #173 |
| Shooting | ||
| 49.5 #269 | Effective FG% | 52.6 #122 |
| 32.1 #276 | 3-point % | 32.9 #239 |
| 31.1 #338 | 3-point attempt rate | 37.1 #226 |
| 25.6 #361 | Free throw rate | 35.1 #171 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.3 #35 | Turnover rate | 15.9 #134 |
| 26.4 #312 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.2 #228 |
| 14.0 #148 | Assists per game | 12.8 #225 |
| Defense | ||
| 68.7 #43 | Points allowed | 74.3 #163 |
| 1.04 #76 | Points allowed per possession | 1.07 #144 |
| 50.1 #107 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.3 #116 |
| 32.3 #80 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.1 #186 |
| 18.6 #68 | Turnovers forced | 17.4 #125 |
| 70.1 #153 | Defensive rebound rate | 66.4 #310 |
| 7.0 #130 | Steals per game | 6.2 #214 |
| 3.8 #94 | Blocks per game | 5.9 #4 |
Mercyhurst
15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Long Island70–79
- Wvs Stonehill56–51
- Wvs FDU70–61
- W@ Stonehill75–72
- L@ C Connecticut78–80
A week or more of rest.
Syracuse
15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs SMU69–86
- Lvs Pitt69–71
- L@ Louisville62–77
- L@ Wake Forest83–88
- Lvs North Carolina64–77
A week or more of rest.