1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. MIA vs TEX
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Miami Hurricanes vs Texas Longhorns

Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site
#25MIAMiami AP #14
vs
#11TEXTexas AP #7
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MIAThis seasonTEX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 81–76 · win probability TEX 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 3, TEX 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 16.1%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: MIA 18.3%, TEX 13.0%
MIASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 52%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: MIA 8, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MIASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIA 37.1, TEX 44.2. Allowed: MIA 29.5, TEX 39.6
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 75th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 31.9% and 35.8% of their shots
Even
TEX offense vs MIA defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 37.2%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: MIA 74.1%, TEX 73.1%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MIA plays 69.2 a game (170th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MIA offense vs TEX defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TEX -4.9—
Total—156.2—
Projected score—MIA 75.6 · TEX 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTEX -2.8—
1H total73.0—
1H projected scoreMIA 35.1 · TEX 37.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Miami 0, Texas 2, even 3
MiamiBetterTexas
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
TEXSmall
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
Even
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
Even
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
TEXSmall
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
Even
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
MiamiBetterTexas
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Even
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
Even
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
TEXBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
MIASmall
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
MIASmall
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MIATEX
Scoring
81.5 #39Points per game81.7 #34
1.18 #38Points per possession1.19 #22
69.2 #170Pace (possessions)68.7 #199
Shooting
55.3 #32Effective FG%54.1 #65
34.9 #1273-point %35.1 #107
31.9 #3313-point attempt rate35.8 #254
37.1 #125Free throw rate44.2 #7
Possessions
16.1 #147Turnover rate15.0 #68
37.2 #14Offensive rebound rate35.4 #35
16.2 #42Assists per game12.1 #278
Defense
71.2 #79Points allowed76.1 #220
1.03 #60Points allowed per possession1.11 #235
51.8 #198Opponent effective FG%50.8 #144
35.8 #296Opponent 3-point %34.7 #230
18.3 #87Turnovers forced13.0 #356
74.1 #19Defensive rebound rate73.1 #35
7.9 #48Steals per game5.5 #298
3.3 #174Blocks per game2.9 #239
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.