Florida International Panthers at Miami Hurricanes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 16, 7:00 PM ETWatsco Center · at Miami

#178FIUFIU81final

Final

#25MIAMiami98▲ winner

Closing lineMIA -22.5✓ FIU covered by 5.5

Closing total161.5Over by 17.5

Season records: FIU and Miami
FIU	This season	MIA
3-3	Record	9-2
4-2	ATS	7-4
4-2	O/U	6-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FIU 69–88 MIA · ✓ MIA (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FIU	43	38	81
MIA	43	55	98

1st half: FIU 43, MIA 43 (tied). The model had MIA by 11.2 and a total of 73.3 (actual 86).

Team stats

FIU		MIA
30-63 48%	Field goals	35-65 54%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	6-23 26%
14-21 67%	Free throws	22-31 71%
31 12 off	Rebounds	37 15 off
16	Assists	22
7	Steals	7
6	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	12
26	Fouls	19
42	Points in paint	54
12	Fast-break points	16

Players

FIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Stephenson G	35	23	2	6	10-15	3-6
Zawdie Jackson G	26	9	5	1	2-7	1-2
Hamed Olayinka F	21	7	3	1	3-6	0-1
Ashton Williamson G	20	7	0	2	3-8	1-4
Eric Dibami C	10	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Julian Mackey G	25	17	5	2	5-9	1-3
Thiago Sucatzky G	22	10	3	2	4-7	0-1
Brit Harris G	18	3	4	1	1-5	1-5
Ibrahim Olajuwon C	14	5	1	0	2-3	0-0
Kennedy Brown F	8	0	0	1	0-2	0-0
Renato Ruiz G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gvidas Gicevicius, Jorge Santos, Mikey Kelvin II, Aydan Clinton, Amarion Nimmers

MIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shelton Henderson F	37	30	5	2	10-12	0-1
Tre Donaldson G	36	10	2	12	3-14	1-6
Malik Reneau F	29	22	6	4	8-12	0-1
Tru Washington G	27	13	3	2	5-8	2-4
Ernest Udeh Jr. C	21	12	8	0	5-7	0-0
Bench
Timo Malovec F	29	9	5	1	3-10	3-10
Noam Dovrat G	13	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Salih Altuntas C	8	2	5	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: JJ Laboy, Jordyn Kee, Dante Allen, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MIA -22.5	MIA -18.8	FIU +3.7	W FIU covered
Total	161.5	156.6	Under 4.9	L Over
Projected score	—	FIU 68.9 · MIA 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIA -11.2	PK
1H total	73.3	86
1H projected score	FIU 31.1 · MIA 42.2	FIU 43 · MIA 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	2-1
MIA LWWWL	7-4	64%	5-2	6-2

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU OUUOO	4-2	67%	3-3
MIA UUUOO	6-5	55%	9-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
MIA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FIU 0–1 MIAMIA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FIU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2023-24	FIU 80 @ MIA 86	MIA -22.5	FIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FIU

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEB	L 66-96	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 13	@LSU	L 81-98	+21.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsJMU	L 72-80	-2.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 26	vsOMA	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsFGCU	W 89-83	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 172
Dec 6	vsJAX	W 88-65	-5.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

−8.5

LSU

L 81-98

+4.5

JMU

L 72-80

−10.5

OMA

W 74-61

+8.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+7.5

JAX

W 88-65

+17.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

+5.5

LSU

L 81-98

+20.5

JMU

L 72-80

−3.5

OMA

W 74-61

−22.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+17.5

JAX

W 88-65

+7.5

over 4under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Miami

11 games played

Straight up

9-2

82% wins

Against the spread

7-4

64% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-5

55% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-282%

W W W L W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-464%

L W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-555%

O O O U O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJAX	W 86-69	-18.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 6	vsBCU	W 101-61	-16.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsSTET	W 102-61	-34.5	W +6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	vsFLA	L 68-82	+10.5	L −3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 20	vsELON	W 99-72	-19.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsDSU	W 97-41	-34.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsBYU	L 62-72	+7.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 134
Nov 28	vsGTWN	W 78-65	-5.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 143
Dec 2	@MISS	W 75-66	+1.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 6	vsUSM	W 88-64	-19.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 13	vsULM	W 104-79	-35.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JAX

W 86-69

−1.5

BCU

W 101-61

+23.5

STET

W 102-61

+6.5

FLA

L 68-82

−3.5

ELON

W 99-72

+7.5

DSU

W 97-41

+21.5

BYU

L 62-72

−2.5

GTWN

W 78-65

+7.5

MISS

W 75-66

+10.5

USM

W 88-64

+4.5

ULM

W 104-79

−10.5

covered 7didn’t cover 4avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JAX

W 86-69

+12.5

BCU

W 101-61

+7.5

STET

W 102-61

+1.5

FLA

L 68-82

−21.5

ELON

W 99-72

+6.5

DSU

W 97-41

−13.5

BYU

L 62-72

−31.5

GTWN

W 78-65

−8.5

MISS

W 75-66

−4.5

USM

W 88-64

+6.5

ULM

W 104-79

+29.5

over 6under 5avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida International Panthers at Miami Hurricanes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

FIU

Miami

FIU

Miami