The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss
Closing line
MISS -1.5✓ MIA covered by 10.5
MISS -1.5✓ MIA covered by 10.5Closing total145.5Under by 4.5
 MIA | This season | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 5-3 | ATS | 1-6 |
| 4-4 | O/U | 6-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 76–76 MISS · ✗ MISS (51%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 42 | 33 | 75 |
| MISS | 26 | 40 | 66 |
1st half: MIA 42, MISS 26 (MIA by 16). The model had MISS by 0.1 and a total of 71.1 (actual 68).
Team stats
| MIA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 23-66 35% |
| 11-25 44% | 3-pointers | 11-26 42% |
| 10-15 67% | Free throws | 9-11 82% |
| 45 15 off | Rebounds | 29 14 off |
| 15 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 10 |
| 5 | Blocks | 10 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 37 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Tru Washington G | 35 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 5-10 | 4-6 |
| Malik Reneau F | 32 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 7-12 | 1-3 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 32 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 7-12 | 0-1 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 18 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Timo Malovec F | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
Did not play: Jordyn Kee, Dante Allen, Treyvon Maddox, JJ Laboy, Marcus Allen
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patton Pinkins G | 27 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Ilias Kamardine G | 25 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1-11 | 1-4 |
| AJ Storr G | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-9 | 2-5 |
| James Scott F | 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Malik Dia F | 18 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 2-10 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Travis Perry G | 23 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Zach Day G | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Corey Chest F | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Koren Johnson G | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Hobert Grayson IV G | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Eduardo Klafke G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Niko Bundalo, Max Smith, Tylis Jordan
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMISS -1.5
ModelMISS -0.4
Model edgeMIA +1.1
W MIA covered
Total
Market145.5
Model151.9
Model edgeOver 6.4
L Under
Projected score
MIA 75.7 · MISS 76.1
MIA 75 · MISS 66
Win probability
MISS 51%
1st half
Spread
MISS -0.1
MIA -16.0
Total
71.1
68 points
Projected score
MIA 35.5 · MISS 35.6
MIA 42 · MISS 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMISS -3.5
2 → MIA
CloseMISS -1.5
2 pts toward MIA
Total
Open148.5
▼ 3
Close145.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
MIA +110 · MISS -130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MISS -3.5 · closed MISS -1.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel MISS -0.5
model MISS -0.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 3 downmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAlast 8 | 6-2 75% | 5-3 63% | 4-4 50% |
| MISSlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 1-6 14% | 6-1 86% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
8 games played
Straight up
6-2
75% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +7.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
over 4under 4avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ole Miss
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
1-6
14% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-1
86% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
over 6under 1avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
6-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgetown78–65
- Lvs BYU62–72
- Wvs Delaware St97–41
- Wvs Elon99–72
- Lvs Florida68–82
4 days since their last game.
Ole Miss
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Utah74–75
- Lvs Iowa69–74
- Wvs Austin Peay72–65
- Wvs Bakersfield82–60
- Wvs Memphis83–77
6 days since their last game.