Utah Utes vs Ole Miss Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 11:59 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#73UTAHUtah75▲ winner

Final

#46MISSOle Miss74final

Closing lineMISS -10.5✓ UTAH covered by 11.5

Closing total144.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Utah and Ole Miss
UTAH	This season	MISS
5-2	Record	5-1
0-7	ATS	1-5
6-1	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTAH 74–81 MISS · ✗ MISS (73%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTAH	42	33	75
MISS	34	40	74

1st half: UTAH 42, MISS 34 (UTAH by 8). The model had MISS by 4.2 and a total of 73.0 (actual 76).

Team stats

UTAH		MISS
25-53 47%	Field goals	28-56 50%
10-19 53%	3-pointers	4-14 29%
15-20 75%	Free throws	14-17 82%
27 10 off	Rebounds	30 10 off
16	Assists	15
6	Steals	5
2	Blocks	6
13	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	40
8	Fast-break points	5

Players

UTAH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Don McHenry G	35	27	2	3	10-15	5-6
Terrence Brown G	29	14	1	4	3-11	2-4
Keanu Dawes F	25	6	5	3	3-4	0-1
Seydou Traore G	24	6	1	2	2-4	0-0
Josh Hayes F	17	10	3	1	3-4	0-0
Bench
Kendyl Sanders F	23	9	8	2	3-7	2-4
Jacob Patrick G	17	3	0	0	1-4	1-3
Obomate Abbey G	16	0	1	1	0-4	0-1
James Okonkwo F	14	0	4	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jerry Huang, Elijah Moore, Ibrahima Traore, Babacar Faye, Jahki Howard, Alvin Jackson III

MISS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ilias Kamardine G	34	15	2	3	5-7	1-2
AJ Storr G	27	10	3	2	5-10	0-1
Malik Dia F	26	17	9	1	5-9	0-1
James Scott F	23	9	5	1	4-5	0-0
Kezza Giffa G	13	0	0	2	0-3	0-0
Bench
Patton Pinkins G	28	14	1	1	5-9	2-4
Travis Perry G	16	3	1	2	1-6	1-4
Eduardo Klafke G	14	0	3	3	0-2	0-2
Augusto Cassia F	9	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Corey Chest F	9	4	4	0	2-4	0-0
Koren Johnson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Niko Bundalo, Max Smith, Zach Day, Hobert Grayson IV

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MISS -10.5	MISS -7.1	UTAH +3.4	W UTAH covered
Total	144.5	155.8	Over 11.3	W Over
Projected score	—	UTAH 74.3 · MISS 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MISS -4.2	UTAH -8.0
1H total	73.0	76
1H projected score	UTAH 34.4 · MISS 38.5	UTAH 42 · MISS 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTAH LLLLL	0-7	0%	0-1	0-1
MISS LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	1-4

Venue/role: UTAH neutral site, as underdog; MISS neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOOOU	6-1	86%	5-2
MISS OOOUO	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 7	5-2 71%	0-7 0%	6-1 86%
MISSlast 6	5-1 83%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

0-7

0% covers · avg −8.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-186%

O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 20	vsCP	L 85-92	-14.5	L −21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsGCU	L 58-68	+5.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

L 85-92

−21.5

GCU

L 58-68

−4.5

covered 0didn’t cover 7avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

L 85-92

+9.5

GCU

L 58-68

−27.5

over 6under 1avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ole Miss

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSELA	W 88-58	-21.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsULM	W 86-65	-37.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 11	vsMEM	W 83-77	-9.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsCSUB	W 82-60	-23.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsAPSU	W 72-65	-20.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsIOWA	L 69-74	+4.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+8.5

ULM

W 86-65

−16.5

MEM

W 83-77

−3.5

CSUB

W 82-60

−1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−13.5

IOWA

L 69-74

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+2.5

ULM

W 86-65

+1.5

MEM

W 83-77

+7.5

CSUB

W 82-60

+1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−8.5

IOWA

L 69-74

+2.5

over 5under 1avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Utes vs Ole Miss Rebels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah

Ole Miss

Utah

Ole Miss