1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. MONT @ CP
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Montana Grizzlies at Cal Poly Mustangs

Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly
#273MONTMontana
@
#164CPCal Poly
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONTThis seasonCP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CP 86–77 · win probability CP 80%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 162.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CP has more of the edges

MONT 3, CP 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CPBig
CP offense vs MONT defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
MONTBig
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 41.8% and 52.6% of their shots
MONTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; CP 51.5 and allows 53.8
CPBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, CP 100%. Transfers in: MONT 0, CP 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MONTSmall
MONT offense vs CP defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
CPSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, CP 30.0%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, CP 70.4%
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, CP the 170th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CPSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, CP 19.8%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, CP 16.3%
CPSmall
Home court
CP at home. This season: CP 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, CP 34.9. Allowed: MONT 32.6, CP 34.1
Context
Tempo
About 74 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), CP 76.4 (1st). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CP -9.6—
Total—162.6—
Projected score—MONT 76.5 · CP 86.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCP -5.5—
1H total76.0—
1H projected scoreMONT 35.2 · CP 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Montana 1, Cal Poly 1, even 3
MontanaBetterCal Poly
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
CPBig
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
MONTSmall
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
MontanaBetterCal Poly
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
MONTSmall
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
CPBig
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
CPSmall
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterCP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTCP
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game81.3 #42
1.06 #216Points per possession1.06 #222
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)76.4 #1
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%51.5 #170
36.6 #383-point %33.0 #228
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate52.6 #5
36.8 #135Free throw rate34.9 #182
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate19.8 #345
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate30.0 #202
14.3 #125Assists per game13.3 #194
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed85.3 #360
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.12 #274
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%53.8 #292
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %34.7 #231
14.3 #326Turnovers forced16.3 #203
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate70.4 #141
5.4 #306Steals per game6.4 #188
2.4 #313Blocks per game2.2 #337
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.