1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. CP @ COLO
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Cal Poly Mustangs at Colorado Buffaloes

CU Events Center · at Colorado
#164CPCal Poly
@
#65COLOColorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CPThis seasonCOLO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 91–76 · win probability COLO 90%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 167.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLO has more of the edges

CP 1, COLO 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLOBig
COLO offense vs CP defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
COLOBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: CP 16.3%, COLO 15.2%
Context
Schedule so far
CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CPBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: CP 0, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
COLOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6
COLOSmall
Home court
COLO at home. This season: COLO 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 74 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, COLO 70.4%
Even
Three-pointers
CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 52.6% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CP 34.9, COLO 36.6. Allowed: CP 34.1, COLO 36.6
Even
CP offense vs COLO defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLO -14.7—
Total—167.0—
Projected score—CP 76.1 · COLO 90.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLO -8.6—
1H total77.9—
1H projected scoreCP 34.7 · COLO 43.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 0, Colorado 3, even 2
Cal PolyBetterColorado
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
Even
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
COLOBig
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
COLOSmall
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
No call
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
COLOSmall
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
Cal PolyBetterColorado
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
Even
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
COLOBig
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
COLOBig
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
COLOSmall
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCP betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CPCOLO
Scoring
81.3 #42Points per game80.2 #63
1.06 #222Points per possession1.13 #80
76.4 #1Pace (possessions)71.0 #76
Shooting
51.5 #170Effective FG%52.9 #108
33.0 #2283-point %35.1 #104
52.6 #53-point attempt rate35.2 #267
34.9 #182Free throw rate36.6 #139
Possessions
19.8 #345Turnover rate14.7 #46
30.0 #202Offensive rebound rate29.0 #235
13.3 #194Assists per game15.4 #67
Defense
85.3 #360Points allowed79.8 #313
1.12 #274Points allowed per possession1.12 #272
53.8 #292Opponent effective FG%52.6 #243
34.7 #231Opponent 3-point %36.3 #319
16.3 #203Turnovers forced15.2 #267
70.4 #141Defensive rebound rate70.4 #144
6.4 #188Steals per game6.3 #196
2.2 #337Blocks per game3.3 #170
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.