Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 15, 9:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clemson and South Carolina
CLEM	This season	SC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLEM 76–70 · win probability CLEM 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLEM has more of the edges

CLEM 6, SC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CLEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLEM 28.1%, SC 27.2%. Defensive: CLEM 73.7%, SC 67.9%

CLEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLEM 52.5 and allows 48.8; SC 50.3 and allows 51.6

CLEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLEM 14.0%, SC 14.4%. Forced: CLEM 17.4%, SC 14.6%

CLEMSmall

SC offense vs CLEM defense

Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: CLEM plays 65.6 a game (326th fastest), SC 68.8 (195th). Faster games mean more points

CLEMSmall

Three-pointers

CLEM hits 34.1% and allows 32.4%; SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 43.1% and 44.4% of their shots

SCSmall

Home court

SC at home. This season: SC 0-0 at home, CLEM 0-0 away

CLEMSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLEM 37%, SC 13%. Transfers in: CLEM 4, SC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

CLEM has played the 66th-hardest schedule, SC the 54th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

CLEM offense vs SC defense

Offense 51st of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLEM 36.7, SC 36.7. Allowed: CLEM 33.9, SC 34.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CLEM -5.7	—
Total	—	145.2	—
Projected score	—	CLEM 75.5 · SC 69.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CLEM -3.5	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	CLEM 35.7 · SC 32.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LWLLL	17-18	49%	6-5	—
SC LLLWL	14-18	44%	6-13	—

Venue/role: CLEM away; SC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM OUOUU	14-21	40%	24-11
SC UUUUO	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
SC	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clemson

No more games listed yet.

South Carolina

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CLEM 3–2 SCCLEM leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · CLEM 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2025-26	SC 61 @ CLEM 68	CLEM -12.5	SC W
Dec 17, 2024-25	CLEM 88 @ SC 91	SC +1.5	SC W
Dec 6, 2023-24	SC 67 @ CLEM 72	CLEM -8.5	SC W
Nov 11, 2022-23	CLEM 58 @ SC 60	SC +3.5	SC W
Dec 18, 2021-22	SC 56 @ CLEM 70	CLEM -9.5	CLEM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clemson

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

17-18

49% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1849%

W W L L L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W L W L L L L W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-2140%

U O U O U O O O O U U U U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUNH	W 88-38	-29.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 7	vsGWEB	W 97-59	-29.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 11	vsMORE	W 83-56	-29.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 15	@GTWN	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 153
Nov 17	vsUNA	W 81-61	-25.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsWVU	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsUGA	W 97-94	-1.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 191
Nov 28	vsAAMU	W 92-56	-27.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 3	@ALA	L 84-90	+8.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 174
Dec 9	vsBYU	L 64-67	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsMER	W 70-63	-22.5	L −15.5	152.5	U 133
Dec 16	vsSC	W 68-61	-12.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 21	vsCIN	W 68-65	-3.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 133
Dec 31	@SYR	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 3	@PITT	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 7	vsSMU	W 74-70	-3.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 10	@ND	W 76-61	-3.5	W +11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsBC	W 74-50	-15.5	W +8.5	136.5	U 124
Jan 17	vsMIA	W 69-59	-4.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 128
Jan 20	vsNCSU	L 76-80	-2.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 24	@GT	W 77-63	-8.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsPITT	W 63-52	-10.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 4	@STAN	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 130
Feb 7	@CAL	W 77-55	-4.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 132
Feb 11	vsVT	L 66-76	-8.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 14	@DUKE	L 54-67	+12.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 18	@WAKE	L 77-85	-4.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 162
Feb 21	vsFSU	L 65-70	-8.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsLOU	W 80-75	+2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@UNC	L 63-67	+2.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsGT	W 79-76	-15.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 155
Mar 11	vsWAKE	W 71-62	-5.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 12	vsUNC	W 80-79	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsDUKE	L 61-73	+10.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsIOWA	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	130.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

+20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+8.5

W 83-56

−2.5

GTWN

L 74-79

−6.5

UNA

W 81-61

−5.5

WVU

W 70-67

−1.5

UGA

W 97-94

+1.5

AAMU

W 92-56

+8.5

ALA

L 84-90

+2.5

BYU

L 64-67

+1.5

MER

W 70-63

−15.5

W 68-61

−5.5

CIN

W 68-65

−0.5

SYR

W 64-61

+1.5

PITT

W 73-68

+1.5

SMU

W 74-70

+0.5

W 76-61

+11.5

W 74-50

+8.5

MIA

W 69-59

+5.5

NCSU

L 76-80

−6.5

W 77-63

+5.5

PITT

W 63-52

+0.5

STAN

W 66-64

−1.5

CAL

W 77-55

+17.5

L 66-76

−18.5

DUKE

L 54-67

−0.5

WAKE

L 77-85

−12.5

FSU

L 65-70

−13.5

LOU

W 80-75

+7.5

UNC

L 63-67

−1.5

W 79-76

−12.5

WAKE

W 71-62

+3.5

UNC

W 80-79

−1.5

DUKE

L 61-73

−1.5

IOWA

L 61-67

−4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

−20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+10.5

W 83-56

−12.5

GTWN

L 74-79

+10.5

UNA

W 81-61

−2.5

WVU

W 70-67

+4.5

UGA

W 97-94

+38.5

AAMU

W 92-56

+6.5

ALA

L 84-90

+8.5

BYU

L 64-67

−21.5

MER

W 70-63

−19.5

W 68-61

−13.5

CIN

W 68-65

−7.5

SYR

W 64-61

−15.5

PITT

W 73-68

+5.5

SMU

W 74-70

−5.5

W 76-61

+3.5

W 74-50

−12.5

MIA

W 69-59

−15.5

NCSU

L 76-80

+13.5

W 77-63

−2.5

PITT

W 63-52

−20.5

STAN

W 66-64

−8.5

CAL

W 77-55

−7.5

L 66-76

+3.5

DUKE

L 54-67

−13.5

WAKE

L 77-85

+21.5

FSU

L 65-70

−10.5

LOU

W 80-75

+8.5

UNC

L 63-67

−11.5

W 79-76

+9.5

WAKE

W 71-62

−10.5

UNC

W 80-79

+18.5

DUKE

L 61-73

−0.5

IOWA

L 61-67

−2.5

over 14under 21avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W W W L L W L W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W L L L W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U O U O O U O O U U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 13	vsCIT	W 71-55	-22.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	@CLEM	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 22	vsSCST	W 95-70	-31.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	vsUALB	W 96-67	-19.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsVAN	L 71-83	+9.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 6	@LSU	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsUGA	L 70-75	+4.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	@ARK	L 74-108	+12.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 182
Jan 17	@AUB	L 67-71	+13.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsOU	W 85-76	+2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@TA&M	L 69-92	+10.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsFLA	L 48-95	+13.5	L −33.5	151.5	U 143
Jan 31	vsLSU	L 87-92	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 3	@TEX	L 75-84	+13.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMIZ	L 59-78	+3.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@ALA	L 75-89	+17.5	W +3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 17	@FLA	L 62-76	+23.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	vsMSST	W 97-89	+1.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 24	vsUK	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UGA	L 68-87	+12.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsTENN	L 59-78	+10.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	@MISS	W 64-61	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsOU	L 74-86	+7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

CIT

W 71-55

−6.5

CLEM

L 61-68

+5.5

SCST

W 95-70

−6.5

UALB

W 96-67

+9.5

VAN

L 71-83

−2.5

LSU

W 78-68

+17.5

UGA

L 70-75

−0.5

ARK

L 74-108

−21.5

AUB

L 67-71

+9.5

W 85-76

+11.5

TA&M

L 69-92

−12.5

FLA

L 48-95

−33.5

LSU

L 87-92

−2.5

TEX

L 75-84

+4.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−15.5

ALA

L 75-89

+3.5

FLA

L 62-76

+9.5

MSST

W 97-89

+9.5

L 63-72

−1.5

UGA

L 68-87

−6.5

TENN

L 59-78

−8.5

MISS

W 64-61

+10.5

L 74-86

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

CIT

W 71-55

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-68

−13.5

SCST

W 95-70

+15.5

UALB

W 96-67

+14.5

VAN

L 71-83

−1.5

LSU

W 78-68

+0.5

UGA

L 70-75

−18.5

ARK

L 74-108

+26.5

AUB

L 67-71

−14.5

W 85-76

+10.5

TA&M

L 69-92

+5.5

FLA

L 48-95

−8.5

LSU

L 87-92

+31.5

TEX

L 75-84

+9.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−10.5

ALA

L 75-89

−6.5

FLA

L 62-76

−18.5

MSST

W 97-89

+34.5

L 63-72

−16.5

UGA

L 68-87

−3.5

TENN

L 59-78

−4.5

MISS

W 64-61

−22.5

L 74-86

+10.5

over 16under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clemson has the better starters

Position by position: Clemson 4, South Carolina 0, even 1

ClemsonBetterSouth Carolina

G C. Certa TR12.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 83

Even

G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

F D. Faulkner TR17.3 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99

CLEMSmall

G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81

F D. Fuchs TR13 pts · 7.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 95

CLEMBig

F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46

F L. Lelevicius TR8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 72

CLEMSmall

F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F C. Welling10.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 97

CLEMBig

F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36

ClemsonBetterSouth Carolina

CLEM offense51st of 366 · +3.6

Even

SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6

CLEM defense25th of 366 · +4.8

CLEMSmall

SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt+1.5 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.4 · 4 players

CLEMBig

Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.5 · 5 players

CLEMBig

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCLEM betterSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clemson

Guards

C. Certa27 min · TRA. Buckner20 minZ. Foster19 minH. ReynoldsNewA. JamesNew

Forwards

D. Faulkner27 min · TRD. Fuchs24 min · TRL. Lelevicius24 min · TRC. Welling21 minC. Thompson9 minD. Thomas4 min

Centers

W. StevensNew

South Carolina

Guards

S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew

Forwards

J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLEM73.8 #209

SC74.9 #165

Points per possession

CLEM1.12 #95

SC1.09 #161

Pace (possessions)

CLEM65.6 #326

SC68.8 #195

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLEM52.5 #126

SC50.3 #226

3-point %

CLEM34.1 #165

SC31.1 #317

3-point attempt rate

CLEM43.1 #115

SC44.4 #80

Free throw rate

CLEM36.7 #136

SC36.7 #137

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLEM14.0 #24

SC14.4 #39

Offensive rebound rate

CLEM28.1 #264

SC27.2 #289

Assists per game

CLEM12.7 #233

SC13.3 #190

Defense

Points allowed

CLEM66.7 #21

SC76.5 #228

Points allowed per possession

CLEM1.02 #41

SC1.11 #252

Opponent effective FG%

CLEM48.8 #59

SC51.6 #188

Opponent 3-point %

CLEM32.4 #88

SC31.8 #56

Turnovers forced

CLEM17.4 #124

SC14.6 #314

Defensive rebound rate

CLEM73.7 #21

SC67.9 #263

Steals per game

CLEM6.3 #209

SC5.5 #295

Blocks per game

CLEM2.8 #260

SC2.4 #317

CLEM		SC
Scoring
73.8 #209	Points per game	74.9 #165
1.12 #95	Points per possession	1.09 #161
65.6 #326	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #195
Shooting
52.5 #126	Effective FG%	50.3 #226
34.1 #165	3-point %	31.1 #317
43.1 #115	3-point attempt rate	44.4 #80
36.7 #136	Free throw rate	36.7 #137
Possessions
14.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.4 #39
28.1 #264	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #289
12.7 #233	Assists per game	13.3 #190
Defense
66.7 #21	Points allowed	76.5 #228
1.02 #41	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #252
48.8 #59	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #188
32.4 #88	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #56
17.4 #124	Turnovers forced	14.6 #314
73.7 #21	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #263
6.3 #209	Steals per game	5.5 #295
2.8 #260	Blocks per game	2.4 #317

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clemson

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa61–67
Lvs Duke61–73
Wvs North Carolina80–79
Wvs Wake Forest71–62
Wvs Georgia Tech79–76

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma74–86
W@ Ole Miss64–61
Lvs Tennessee59–78
L@ Georgia68–87
Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks

What could decide it: CLEM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Clemson

South Carolina

Clemson has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clemson

South Carolina