The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 7:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

Final

Closing lineSC -22.5✓ CIT covered by 6.5

Closing total141.5Under by 15.5

Season records: The Citadel and South Carolina
CIT	This season	SC
0-7	Record	6-3
1-6	ATS	4-5
3-4	O/U	6-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CIT 61–86 SC · ✓ SC (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CIT	28	27	55
SC	35	36	71

1st half: CIT 28, SC 35 (SC by 7). The model had SC by 15.3 and a total of 68.9 (actual 63).

Team stats

CIT		SC
21-57 37%	Field goals	25-59 42%
2-19 11%	3-pointers	3-23 13%
11-20 55%	Free throws	18-21 86%
32 10 off	Rebounds	40 11 off
9	Assists	10
6	Steals	3
4	Blocks	5
9	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	16
32	Points in paint	42
9	Fast-break points	8

Players

CIT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carter Kingsbury G	33	18	3	1	8-14	1-5
Sola Adebisi F	33	9	5	3	2-8	0-3
Eze Wali G	29	7	6	2	2-11	0-2
Braxton Williams F	28	7	3	1	3-9	0-3
Christian Moore F	18	2	3	1	1-2	0-1
Bench
Dante Kearse G	18	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Gabe Hernandez G	15	5	0	1	2-5	0-0
Keynan Davis G	10	7	2	0	3-4	1-2
Simeon German F	10	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Logan Applegate G	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Jack Walter, Aidan Alexander, Rowan Irelan, Jameson Heck, Marcos Gonzales, Chase Williams, Cassius Bonjasky, Logan Menefee

SC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mike Sharavjamts G	33	14	7	3	6-12	0-2
Kobe Knox G	31	12	4	2	3-9	0-4
Meechie Johnson G	30	19	2	3	7-11	1-3
Myles Stute G	18	5	4	0	2-4	1-2
Christ Essandoko F	13	0	2	2	0-4	0-2
Bench
Eli Ellis G	24	8	2	0	3-9	0-4
Grant Polk G	19	5	1	0	2-7	1-6
EJ Walker F	12	1	5	0	0-0	0-0
Hayden Assemian F	11	7	6	0	2-3	0-0
Jordan Butler F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Elijah Strong F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Abu Yarmah, Nordin Kapic, Eli Sparkman, Cam Scott

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SC -22.5	SC -25.6	SC +3.1	L CIT covered
Total	141.5	147.1	Over 5.6	L Under
Projected score	—	CIT 60.7 · SC 86.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SC -15.3	SC -7.0
1H total	68.9	63
1H projected score	CIT 26.8 · SC 42.1	CIT 28 · SC 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIT LLLLW	1-6	14%	1-2	1-6
SC LWLLW	4-5	44%	3-4	3-4

Venue/role: CIT away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIT OUUUO	3-4	43%	0-7
SC OOUOU	6-3	67%	6-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CITlast 7	0-7 0%	1-6 14%	3-4 43%
SClast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

The Citadel

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

1-6

14% covers · avg −7.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-614%

L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 4	@DAV	L 63-79	+18.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

DAV

L 63-79

+2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

DAV

L 63-79

+4.5

over 3under 4avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

9 games played

Straight up

6-3

67% wins

Against the spread

4-5

44% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-367%

W W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-544%

L L W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-367%

O O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 5avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

over 6under 3avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

The Citadel

South Carolina

The Citadel

South Carolina