UC Davis Aggies at Cal Poly Mustangs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 5:00 PM ETMott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly · Conference game

#182UCDUC Davis78final

Final

#164CPCal Poly84▲ winner

Closing lineUCD -1.5✓ CP covered by 7.5

Closing total168.5Under by 6.5

Season records: UC Davis and Cal Poly
UCD	This season	CP
7-6	Record	4-11
7-5	ATS	7-8
9-3	O/U	9-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCD 84–82 CP · ✗ UCD (56%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCD	40	38	78
CP	30	54	84

1st half: UCD 40, CP 30 (UCD by 10). The model had UCD by 1.2 and a total of 77.5 (actual 70).

Team stats

UCD		CP
25-63 40%	Field goals	24-57 42%
11-28 39%	3-pointers	10-34 29%
17-20 85%	Free throws	26-28 93%
37 9 off	Rebounds	38 7 off
17	Assists	12
6	Steals	6
0	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	10
20	Fouls	18
22	Points in paint	28
10	Fast-break points	16

Players

UCD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brayden Fagbemi G	33	9	3	3	2-10	1-1
Connor Sevilla G	30	11	3	2	3-14	2-8
Nils Cooper G	27	18	7	5	5-8	0-0
Isaiah Chappell F	25	6	6	1	2-7	2-6
Marcus Wilson G	20	8	2	4	3-8	2-5
Bench
Carl Daughtery Jr. G	32	18	2	0	6-10	4-8
Jalen Stokes G	17	6	4	1	3-4	0-0
Omer Suljanovic F	10	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Cyril Franklin Jr. G	4	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Chase Rawlins G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ylan Esso-Essis, Jonathan Noudjihidi, Abdullah Amzil, Niko Rocak

CP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Davis G	37	12	6	2	5-10	2-6
Hamad Mousa G	36	24	10	3	6-14	2-8
Kieran Elliott G	26	8	3	0	3-6	0-1
Cayden Ward G	26	13	8	3	2-8	1-5
Peter Bandelj G	22	14	4	4	3-7	3-6
Bench
Jackson Mosley PG	23	8	1	0	3-8	1-5
Guzman Vasilic G	19	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Austin Goode F	11	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Eric Brown, Jason Scott, Jess Esso Essis, Braden Freeman, Aaron Price Jr., Ali Assran, Luka Tarlac, Troy Plumtree

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCD -1.5	UCD -1.8	UCD +0.3	L CP covered
Total	168.5	165.7	Under 2.8	W Under
Projected score	—	UCD 83.7 · CP 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCD -1.2	UCD -10.0
1H total	77.5	70
1H projected score	UCD 39.4 · CP 38.2	UCD 40 · CP 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCD WWWLW	7-5	58%	3-3	3-2
CP WLWLW	7-8	47%	1-3	7-6

Venue/role: UCD away, as favorite; CP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCD OOOOO	9-3	75%	7-6
CP OUUUO	9-6	60%	4-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCD	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	8-1 89%
CP	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

UCD 7–2 CPUCD leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCD 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2024-25	CP 86 vs UCD 76	UCD +1.5	CP W
Jan 16, 2024-25	UCD 65 @ CP 54	CP -5.5	UCD W
Dec 5, 2024-25	CP 66 @ UCD 77	UCD -2.5	UCD W
Feb 3, 2023-24	UCD 59 @ CP 52	CP +9.5	CP W
Dec 30, 2023-24	CP 46 @ UCD 71	UCD -10	UCD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Davis

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-3

75% overs · avg +9.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

W L W W L W L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-558%

W L L W L W–L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-375%

O U U O O U–O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 21	@COLO	L 79-95	+14.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsUL	W 77-56	-9.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 133
Dec 4	@HAW	L 69-75	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@ORE	L 62-104	+13.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsSEA	L 78-79	+2.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 157
Dec 21	@IDST	W 93-83	+5.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 176
Jan 1	vsCSUN	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsCSUB	L 79-81	-9.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	@UCSB	W 93-86	+4.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

COLO

L 79-95

−1.5

W 77-56

+11.5

ORE

L 62-104

−28.5

SEA

L 78-79

+1.5

IDST

W 93-83

+15.5

CSUN

W 89-80

+5.5

CSUB

L 79-81

−11.5

UCSB

W 93-86

+11.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

COLO

L 79-95

+21.5

W 77-56

−3.5

ORE

L 62-104

+19.5

SEA

L 78-79

+13.5

IDST

W 93-83

+32.5

CSUN

W 89-80

+6.5

CSUB

L 79-81

+8.5

UCSB

W 93-86

+31.5

over 9under 3avg +9.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cal Poly

15 games played

Straight up

4-11

27% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1127%

L W L L W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-847%

L W W L W L L W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-660%

U U O O O O U O O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 20	@UTAH	W 92-85	+14.5	W +21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 24	@NAU	L 87-93	-1.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsSEMO	L 68-84	+1.5	L −14.5	170.5	U 152
Dec 4	@CSUF	W 94-91	+1.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsUCR	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 16	vsMTST	L 80-83	+2.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 163
Dec 19	@UCLA	L 87-108	+24.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 21	vsIDHO	L 80-83	+1.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 163
Jan 1	vsUCSD	W 67-65	+8.5	W +10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	@LBSU	L 66-74	+2.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@CSUN	L 90-95	+6.5	W +1.5	175.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+21.5

NAU

L 87-93

−7.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−14.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+4.5

UCR

L 84-88

−9.5

MTST

L 80-83

−0.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+3.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−1.5

UCSD

W 67-65

+10.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+9.5

NAU

L 87-93

+15.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−18.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+7.5

UCR

L 84-88

+9.5

MTST

L 80-83

+3.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+33.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−4.5

UCSD

W 67-65

−42.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−22.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+9.5

over 9under 6avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Davis Aggies at Cal Poly Mustangs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Davis

Cal Poly

UC Davis

Cal Poly