Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs Cal Poly Mustangs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ETJ. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · Neutral site

#306SEMOSE Missouri84▲ winner

Final

#164CPCal Poly68final

Closing lineSEMO -1.5✓ SEMO covered by 14.5

Closing total170.5Under by 18.5

Season records: SE Missouri and Cal Poly
SEMO	This season	CP
0-4	Record	2-4
1-3	ATS	3-3
4-0	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SEMO 81–83 CP · ✗ CP (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SEMO	29	55	84
CP	31	37	68

1st half: SEMO 29, CP 31 (CP by 2). The model had CP by 1.1 and a total of 76.6 (actual 60).

Team stats

SEMO		CP
31-68 46%	Field goals	16-54 30%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	5-24 21%
15-17 88%	Free throws	31-37 84%
39 13 off	Rebounds	41 16 off
13	Assists	6
7	Steals	7
4	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	19
26	Fouls	20
40	Points in paint	22
11	Fast-break points	9

Players

SEMO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braxton Stacker G	32	18	2	6	6-12	2-6
Luke Almodovar G	30	29	5	1	11-21	4-10
Brendan Terry F	29	6	5	0	3-6	0-0
BJ Ward G	28	12	3	2	3-10	1-6
Landren Blocker G	23	8	5	1	3-6	0-1
Bench
Marqueas Bell G	19	6	2	1	3-3	0-0
Blaize Sagna G	14	3	3	1	1-3	0-2
PJ Farmer G	9	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
David Idada C	8	0	6	0	0-0	0-0
Troy Cole Jr. G	6	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Elliot Lowndes F	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Trace Sadler F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jay Reynolds, Saxton Hoepker

CP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Peter Bandelj G	26	9	7	2	1-10	0-3
Guzman Vasilic G	25	9	2	0	2-8	1-5
Austin Goode F	21	5	3	1	2-3	1-2
Jake Davis G	20	4	3	0	2-6	0-3
Ali Assran F	18	4	4	1	0-3	0-1
Bench
Cayden Ward G	25	15	4	0	5-10	2-5
Hamad Mousa G	24	14	3	1	1-5	1-2
Troy Plumtree F	15	2	5	0	1-4	0-1
Kieran Elliott G	14	6	5	0	2-3	0-0
Jason Scott G	10	0	0	1	0-2	0-2
Aaron Price Jr. PF	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jess Esso Essis, Braden Freeman, Jackson Mosley, Eric Brown, Luka Tarlac

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SEMO -1.5	CP -2.0	CP +3.5	L SEMO covered
Total	170.5	163.5	Under 7.0	W Under
Projected score	—	SEMO 80.7 · CP 82.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CP -1.1	CP -2.0
1H total	76.6	60
1H projected score	SEMO 37.8 · CP 38.8	SEMO 29 · CP 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SEMO LWLL	1-3	25%	—	—
CP WWLWL	3-3	50%	—	3-2

Venue/role: SEMO neutral site, as favorite; CP neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEMO OOOO	4-0	100%	0-4
CP UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEMOlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	4-0 100%
CPlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Missouri

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

over 4under 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cal Poly

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 20	@UTAH	W 92-85	+14.5	W +21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 24	@NAU	L 87-93	-1.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+21.5

NAU

L 87-93

−7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+9.5

NAU

L 87-93

+15.5

over 4under 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Missouri vs Cal Poly

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Missouri

Cal Poly

SE Missouri

Cal Poly