Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 9:00 PM ETCU Events Center · at Colorado · Conference game

#73UTAHUtah73final

Final

#65COLOColorado85▲ winner

Closing lineCOLO -9.5✓ COLO covered by 2.5

Closing total162.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Utah and Colorado
UTAH	This season	COLO
8-6	Record	11-3
5-9	ATS	7-7
11-3	O/U	9-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTAH 79–86 COLO · ✓ COLO (72%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTAH	38	35	73
COLO	42	43	85

1st half: UTAH 38, COLO 42 (COLO by 4). The model had COLO by 3.8 and a total of 77.3 (actual 80).

Team stats

UTAH		COLO
26-66 39%	Field goals	29-62 47%
5-16 31%	3-pointers	8-24 33%
16-23 70%	Free throws	19-21 90%
35 14 off	Rebounds	41 13 off
11	Assists	16
9	Steals	5
2	Blocks	6
7	Turnovers	11
18	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	36
5	Fast-break points	12

Players

UTAH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keanu Dawes F	36	16	7	2	6-11	1-3
Don McHenry G	35	24	7	1	9-22	3-7
Terrence Brown G	33	16	0	3	5-17	0-2
James Okonkwo F	23	2	6	1	0-1	0-0
Seydou Traore G	17	7	0	1	2-7	1-3
Bench
Kendyl Sanders F	22	4	6	2	2-3	0-1
Josh Hayes F	12	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Obomate Abbey G	12	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Jahki Howard F	5	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Ibrahima Traore F	5	0	2	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Patrick, Jerry Huang, Alvin Jackson III, Babacar Faye, Colin McHaney

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sebastian Rancik F	34	19	4	2	5-11	0-5
Barrington Hargress G	31	9	1	5	4-9	1-3
Bangot Dak F	28	16	12	2	6-12	2-3
Felix Kossaras G	19	3	2	1	1-5	1-4
Elijah Malone C	14	5	1	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	22	12	4	2	3-6	2-3
Jalin Holland G	18	2	4	0	1-4	0-2
Josiah Sanders G	18	9	3	1	4-6	0-1
Alon Michaeli F	16	10	6	2	3-6	2-3

Did not play: Nick Randall, Jon Mani, Ian Inman, Andrew Crawford, Tacko Ifaola, Leonardo Van Elswyk

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLO -9.5	COLO -6.6	UTAH +2.9	L COLO covered
Total	162.5	165.1	Over 2.6	L Under
Projected score	—	UTAH 79.3 · COLO 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -3.8	COLO -4.0
1H total	77.3	80
1H projected score	UTAH 36.7 · COLO 40.5	UTAH 38 · COLO 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WLWWL	5-9	36%	2-0	3-3
COLO WLLLW	7-7	50%	4-5	4-6

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOOUO	11-3	79%	8-6
COLO UOUOO	9-5	64%	11-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
COLO	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

UTAH 3–5 COLOCOLO leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 3-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2024-25	COLO 59 @ UTAH 72	UTAH -6.5	UTAH W
Mar 14, 2023-24	UTAH 58 vs COLO 72	COLO -4.5	COLO W
Feb 24, 2023-24	UTAH 65 @ COLO 89	COLO -6.5	COLO W
Feb 3, 2023-24	COLO 68 @ UTAH 73	UTAH -3.5	UTAH W
Mar 4, 2022-23	UTAH 60 @ COLO 69	COLO -4.5	COLO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

5-9

36% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-3

79% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

W W W W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-936%

L L L L L L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-379%

O O O O O O U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 20	vsCP	L 85-92	-14.5	L −21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsGCU	L 58-68	+5.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 126
Nov 26	vsMISS	W 75-74	+10.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	@CAL	L 72-79	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCBU	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 13	vsMSST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsEWU	W 101-77	-10.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 178
Dec 29	@WASH	L 65-74	+12.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 3	vsARIZ	L 78-97	+17.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

L 85-92

−21.5

GCU

L 58-68

−4.5

MISS

W 75-74

+11.5

CAL

L 72-79

+0.5

CBU

W 91-85

+0.5

MSST

L 74-82

−6.5

EWU

W 101-77

+13.5

WASH

L 65-74

+3.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

−1.5

covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

L 85-92

+9.5

GCU

L 58-68

−27.5

MISS

W 75-74

+4.5

CAL

L 72-79

−1.5

CBU

W 91-85

+30.5

MSST

L 74-82

+2.5

EWU

W 101-77

+17.5

WASH

L 65-74

−18.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

+12.5

over 11under 3avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

14 games played

Straight up

11-3

79% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg +11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-379%

W W W W W W W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-750%

L L W W W W W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-564%

O O O O O U U U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUCD	W 95-79	-14.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 27	vsSF	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsWASH	W 81-68	+2.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 1	vsCBU	W 78-70	-13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 6	@CSU	L 86-91	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 177
Dec 13	vsUTSA	W 88-64	-22.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 152
Dec 17	vsPRST	W 84-73	-16.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsSTAN	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 28	vsUNCO	L 81-86	-15.5	L −20.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 3	@ASU	W 95-89	+1.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

UCD

W 95-79

+1.5

W 79-69

+11.5

WASH

W 81-68

+15.5

CBU

W 78-70

−5.5

CSU

L 86-91

−3.5

UTSA

W 88-64

+1.5

PRST

W 84-73

−5.5

STAN

L 68-77

−11.5

UNCO

L 81-86

−20.5

ASU

W 95-89

+7.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

UCD

W 95-79

+21.5

W 79-69

−2.5

WASH

W 81-68

−2.5

CBU

W 78-70

−2.5

CSU

L 86-91

+27.5

UTSA

W 88-64

−2.5

PRST

W 84-73

+6.5

STAN

L 68-77

−9.5

UNCO

L 81-86

+8.5

ASU

W 95-89

+27.5

over 9under 5avg +11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah

Colorado

Utah

Colorado