Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 4:00 PM ETJon M. Huntsman Center · at Utah · Conference game

#5ARIZArizona AP #197▲ winner

Final

#73UTAHUtah78final

Closing lineARIZ -17.5✓ ARIZ covered by 1.5

Closing total162.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Arizona and Utah
ARIZ	This season	UTAH
13-0	Record	8-5
7-6	ATS	5-8
7-6	O/U	10-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ARIZ 90–72 UTAH · ✓ ARIZ (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ARIZ	58	39	97
UTAH	39	39	78

1st half: ARIZ 58, UTAH 39 (ARIZ by 19). The model had ARIZ by 11.0 and a total of 75.5 (actual 97).

Team stats

ARIZ		UTAH
37-69 54%	Field goals	31-70 44%
7-18 39%	3-pointers	5-17 29%
16-21 76%	Free throws	11-12 92%
43 14 off	Rebounds	30 10 off
18	Assists	13
11	Steals	5
7	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	12
13	Fouls	16
52	Points in paint	42
15	Fast-break points	6

Players

ARIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Koa Peat F	34	17	2	3	8-14	1-1
Brayden Burries G	32	17	11	3	6-12	1-4
Jaden Bradley G	32	18	4	5	7-11	1-2
Ivan Kharchenkov F	25	13	3	3	6-13	1-4
Motiejus Krivas C	17	7	4	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Tobe Awaka F	27	18	12	1	6-7	2-2
Dwayne Aristode F	16	5	4	0	2-5	1-3
Anthony Dell'Orso G	13	2	1	3	1-4	0-1
Sven Djopmo G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Cook G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Addison Arnold G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Evan Nelson G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jackson Francois, Bryce James, Sidi Gueye, Mabil Mawut

UTAH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Terrence Brown G	33	26	4	6	10-20	1-1
Don McHenry G	33	15	4	0	6-15	3-7
Keanu Dawes F	32	15	9	2	6-12	0-3
Seydou Traore G	19	5	1	2	2-4	1-2
James Okonkwo F	14	2	3	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Kendyl Sanders F	20	0	1	0	0-4	0-2
Josh Hayes F	17	1	4	0	0-2	0-0
Obomate Abbey G	14	5	2	2	2-4	0-1
Ibrahima Traore F	9	6	0	0	3-3	0-0
Jahki Howard F	8	3	1	0	1-3	0-1
Jerry Huang G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Babacar Faye, Jacob Patrick, Alvin Jackson III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARIZ -17.5	ARIZ -18.1	ARIZ +0.6	W ARIZ covered
Total	162.5	161.3	Under 1.2	L Over
Projected score	—	ARIZ 89.7 · UTAH 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARIZ -11.0	ARIZ -19.0
1H total	75.5	97
1H projected score	ARIZ 43.3 · UTAH 32.3	ARIZ 58 · UTAH 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WLWLL	7-6	54%	1-0	5-6
UTAH WWLWW	5-8	38%	2-6	3-2

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; UTAH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UOUOO	7-6	54%	13-0
UTAH UOOOU	10-3	77%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UTAH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

ARIZ 6–1 UTAHARIZ leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ARIZ has won the last 4 meetings · ARIZ 5-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2024-25	UTAH 66 @ ARIZ 83	ARIZ -14.5	ARIZ W
Feb 8, 2023-24	ARIZ 105 @ UTAH 99	UTAH +4.5	ARIZ W
Jan 6, 2023-24	UTAH 73 @ ARIZ 92	ARIZ -12.5	ARIZ W
Feb 16, 2022-23	UTAH 62 @ ARIZ 88	ARIZ -11.5	ARIZ W
Dec 1, 2022-23	ARIZ 66 @ UTAH 81	UTAH +7.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arizona

13 games played

Straight up

13-0

100% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-0100%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W

13 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-654%

W L L W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O U U U U O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFLA	W 93-87	+3.5	W +9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUTU	W 93-67	-33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 11	vsNAU	W 84-49	-35.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 14	vsUCLA	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 19	@CONN	W 71-67	+4.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsDEN	W 103-73	-32.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsNORF	W 98-61	-35.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsAUB	W 97-68	-11.5	W +17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsALA	W 96-75	-2.5	W +18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 16	vsACU	W 96-62	-34.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 20	vsSDSU	W 68-45	-13.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 22	vsBCU	W 107-71	-39.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 178
Dec 29	vsSDST	W 99-71	-31.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

W 93-87

+9.5

UTU

W 93-67

−7.5

NAU

W 84-49

−0.5

UCLA

W 69-65

+2.5

CONN

W 71-67

+8.5

DEN

W 103-73

−2.5

NORF

W 98-61

+1.5

AUB

W 97-68

+17.5

ALA

W 96-75

+18.5

ACU

W 96-62

−0.5

SDSU

W 68-45

+9.5

BCU

W 107-71

−3.5

SDST

W 99-71

−3.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

W 93-87

+15.5

UTU

W 93-67

−2.5

NAU

W 84-49

−30.5

UCLA

W 69-65

−19.5

CONN

W 71-67

−18.5

DEN

W 103-73

+21.5

NORF

W 98-61

+12.5

AUB

W 97-68

+2.5

ALA

W 96-75

−7.5

ACU

W 96-62

+12.5

SDSU

W 68-45

−40.5

BCU

W 107-71

+23.5

SDST

W 99-71

+10.5

over 7under 6avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-3

77% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

L L L L L L L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-377%

O O O O O O U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 20	vsCP	L 85-92	-14.5	L −21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsGCU	L 58-68	+5.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 126
Nov 26	vsMISS	W 75-74	+10.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	@CAL	L 72-79	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCBU	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 13	vsMSST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsEWU	W 101-77	-10.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 178
Dec 29	@WASH	L 65-74	+12.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

L 85-92

−21.5

GCU

L 58-68

−4.5

MISS

W 75-74

+11.5

CAL

L 72-79

+0.5

CBU

W 91-85

+0.5

MSST

L 74-82

−6.5

EWU

W 101-77

+13.5

WASH

L 65-74

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

L 85-92

+9.5

GCU

L 58-68

−27.5

MISS

W 75-74

+4.5

CAL

L 72-79

−1.5

CBU

W 91-85

+30.5

MSST

L 74-82

+2.5

EWU

W 101-77

+17.5

WASH

L 65-74

−18.5

over 10under 3avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Arizona

Utah

Arizona

Utah