UTSA Roadrunners at Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 4:00 PM ETCU Events Center · at Colorado

#192UTSAUTSA64final

Final

#65COLOColorado88▲ winner

Closing lineCOLO -22.5✓ COLO covered by 1.5

Closing total154.5Under by 2.5

Season records: UTSA and Colorado
UTSA	This season	COLO
2-5	Record	8-1
2-5	ATS	5-4
2-5	O/U	6-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTSA 68–89 COLO · ✓ COLO (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTSA	32	32	64
COLO	35	53	88

1st half: UTSA 32, COLO 35 (COLO by 3). The model had COLO by 12.2 and a total of 73.4 (actual 67).

Team stats

UTSA		COLO
25-64 39%	Field goals	34-69 49%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
8-16 50%	Free throws	11-17 65%
34 14 off	Rebounds	46 17 off
14	Assists	21
6	Steals	6
5	Blocks	5
16	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	14
28	Points in paint	42
5	Fast-break points	23

Players

UTSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamir Simpson G	34	20	6	5	8-16	2-3
Austin Nunez G	25	0	2	3	0-4	0-0
Kaidon Rayfield F	25	7	4	2	3-11	1-3
Dorian Hayes G	21	5	1	1	2-6	1-5
Matheo Coffi F	18	4	5	0	2-5	0-2
Bench
Brent Moss G	21	11	1	0	4-9	2-4
Daniel Akitoby F	21	10	2	1	4-6	0-0
Baboucarr Njie F	17	2	3	1	1-3	0-1
Macaleab Rich G	15	4	2	1	1-2	0-0
Mo Njie C	3	1	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Stanley Borden, Jackson Fazande, Vasean Allette, LJ Brown, Pierce Spencer

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barrington Hargress G	26	23	3	3	9-12	5-7
Bangot Dak F	22	10	3	4	4-6	0-1
Sebastian Rancik F	21	15	7	2	6-12	2-4
Felix Kossaras G	20	3	4	3	1-4	1-4
Elijah Malone C	16	6	5	0	2-7	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	24	9	4	6	3-8	0-3
Alon Michaeli F	20	4	5	1	1-6	0-1
Jalin Holland G	18	4	1	1	2-4	0-1
Josiah Sanders G	17	7	6	1	3-6	0-0
Tacko Ifaola C	8	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Ian Inman G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Andrew Crawford F	4	5	0	0	2-2	1-1

Did not play: Nick Randall, Jon Mani, Leonardo Van Elswyk

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLO -22.5	COLO -20.4	UTSA +2.1	L COLO covered
Total	154.5	156.9	Over 2.4	L Under
Projected score	—	UTSA 68.2 · COLO 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -12.2	COLO -3.0
1H total	73.4	67
1H projected score	UTSA 30.6 · COLO 42.8	UTSA 32 · COLO 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA WLWLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-4
COLO WWWLL	5-4	56%	3-3	3-3

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OUUUU	2-5	29%	2-5
COLO OUUUO	6-3	67%	8-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSAlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%
COLOlast 9	8-1 89%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UTSA

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −10.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIUE	L 60-77	-6.5	L −23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 12	@TXST	L 69-80	+2.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	@DEN	W 84-79	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsACU	L 50-61	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsGASO	W 77-64	+3.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 30	vsUSA	L 58-82	+1.5	L −22.5	141.5	U 140
Dec 7	@ALA	L 55-97	+33.5	L −8.5	171.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−23.5

TXST

L 69-80

−8.5

DEN

W 84-79

+9.5

ACU

L 50-61

−8.5

GASO

W 77-64

+16.5

USA

L 58-82

−22.5

ALA

L 55-97

−8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−16.5

TXST

L 69-80

+1.5

DEN

W 84-79

+14.5

ACU

L 50-61

−33.5

GASO

W 77-64

−19.5

USA

L 58-82

−1.5

ALA

L 55-97

−19.5

over 2under 5avg −10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

9 games played

Straight up

8-1

89% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +14.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-189%

W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

L L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-367%

O O O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUCD	W 95-79	-14.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 27	vsSF	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsWASH	W 81-68	+2.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 1	vsCBU	W 78-70	-13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 6	@CSU	L 86-91	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

UCD

W 95-79

+1.5

W 79-69

+11.5

WASH

W 81-68

+15.5

CBU

W 78-70

−5.5

CSU

L 86-91

−3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

UCD

W 95-79

+21.5

W 79-69

−2.5

WASH

W 81-68

−2.5

CBU

W 78-70

−2.5

CSU

L 86-91

+27.5

over 6under 3avg +14.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UTSA Roadrunners at Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UTSA

Colorado

UTSA

Colorado