Stanford Cardinal vs Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 20, 8:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Neutral site

#85STANStanford77▲ winner

Final

#65COLOColorado68final

Closing lineCOLO -2.5✓ STAN covered by 11.5

Closing total154.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Stanford and Colorado
STAN	This season	COLO
9-2	Record	10-1
6-5	ATS	6-5
5-6	O/U	7-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STAN 79–82 COLO · ✗ COLO (61%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STAN	33	44	77
COLO	35	33	68

1st half: STAN 33, COLO 35 (COLO by 2). The model had COLO by 1.8 and a total of 75.0 (actual 68).

Team stats

STAN		COLO
21-52 40%	Field goals	26-55 47%
7-21 33%	3-pointers	4-17 24%
28-41 68%	Free throws	12-13 92%
35 12 off	Rebounds	28 7 off
11	Assists	15
14	Steals	7
2	Blocks	0
9	Turnovers	18
19	Fouls	24
26	Points in paint	40
8	Fast-break points	9

Players

STAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Benny Gealer G	34	13	4	2	3-7	3-5
Ebuka Okorie G	32	32	1	2	6-13	2-5
Ryan Agarwal G	29	3	5	2	1-6	1-3
Chisom Okpara F	28	11	5	0	3-12	1-5
AJ Rohosy F	20	4	5	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Aidan Cammann F	19	4	4	1	1-2	0-0
Oskar Giltay C	18	8	5	1	4-4	0-0
Jeremy Dent-Smith G	14	2	3	3	1-5	0-3
Jaylen Thompson F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kristers Skrinda, Myles Jones, Tallis Toure, Evan Stinson, Ethan Kitch, Donavin Young, Cameron Grant, Anthony Batson Jr.

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barrington Hargress G	32	16	1	6	7-10	1-2
Sebastian Rancik F	28	14	8	0	4-11	2-4
Bangot Dak F	25	8	5	2	2-6	0-2
Felix Kossaras G	19	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Elijah Malone C	12	4	1	0	2-4	0-1
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	27	11	2	4	4-6	1-2
Alon Michaeli F	22	6	6	1	3-9	0-2
Jalin Holland G	17	7	1	2	3-5	0-2
Josiah Sanders G	15	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Tacko Ifaola C	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jon Mani, Leonardo Van Elswyk, Andrew Crawford, Nick Randall, Ian Inman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLO -2.5	COLO -3.2	COLO +0.7	L STAN covered
Total	154.5	160.2	Over 5.7	L Under
Projected score	—	STAN 78.5 · COLO 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -1.8	COLO -2.0
1H total	75.0	68
1H projected score	STAN 36.6 · COLO 38.4	STAN 33 · COLO 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
STAN WWLLW	6-5	55%	2-0	1-0
COLO WLLWL	6-5	55%	2-0	4-4

Venue/role: STAN neutral site, as underdog; COLO neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UOUOU	5-6	45%	9-2
COLO UUOUO	7-4	64%	10-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
COLO	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STAN 0–5 COLOCOLO leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · COLO has won the last 5 meetings · STAN 1-3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2023-24	STAN 71 @ COLO 81	COLO -12.5	STAN W
Feb 5, 2022-23	STAN 62 @ COLO 84	COLO -4.5	COLO W
Dec 29, 2022-23	COLO 73 @ STAN 70	STAN -2.5	COLO W
Feb 19, 2021-22	COLO 70 @ STAN 53	STAN -2.5	COLO W
Nov 28, 2021-22	STAN 76 @ COLO 80	COLO -4	P

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stanford

11 games played

Straight up

9-2

82% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-282%

W W W W L W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

L W L W L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-645%

O O U O U U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 27	vsMINN	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSLU	W 78-77	+1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsPORT	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 7	vsUNLV	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	@SJSU	W 86-82	-8.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 17	vsUTA	W 76-60	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

MINN

W 72-68

+1.5

SLU

W 78-77

+2.5

PORT

W 94-72

+2.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−10.5

SJSU

W 86-82

−4.5

UTA

W 76-60

+5.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

MINN

W 72-68

−2.5

SLU

W 78-77

−5.5

PORT

W 94-72

+9.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−15.5

SJSU

W 86-82

+22.5

UTA

W 76-60

−3.5

over 5under 6avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

11 games played

Straight up

10-1

91% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-4

64% overs · avg +11.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-191%

W W W W W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

L L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-464%

O O O O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUCD	W 95-79	-14.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 27	vsSF	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsWASH	W 81-68	+2.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 1	vsCBU	W 78-70	-13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 6	@CSU	L 86-91	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 177
Dec 13	vsUTSA	W 88-64	-22.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 152
Dec 17	vsPRST	W 84-73	-16.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

UCD

W 95-79

+1.5

W 79-69

+11.5

WASH

W 81-68

+15.5

CBU

W 78-70

−5.5

CSU

L 86-91

−3.5

UTSA

W 88-64

+1.5

PRST

W 84-73

−5.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

UCD

W 95-79

+21.5

W 79-69

−2.5

WASH

W 81-68

−2.5

CBU

W 78-70

−2.5

CSU

L 86-91

+27.5

UTSA

W 88-64

−2.5

PRST

W 84-73

+6.5

over 7under 4avg +11.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stanford Cardinal vs Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stanford

Colorado

Stanford

Colorado