Jersey Mike’s Arena · at Rutgers
Closing line
RUTG -11.5✓ PENN covered by 10.5
RUTG -11.5✓ PENN covered by 10.5Closing total150.5Under by 11.5
 PENN | This season | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | Record | 5-6 |
| 4-5 | ATS | 3-8 |
| 3-6 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PENN 69–81 RUTG · ✓ RUTG (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENN | 33 | 36 | 69 |
| RUTG | 29 | 41 | 70 |
1st half: PENN 33, RUTG 29 (PENN by 4). The model had RUTG by 6.7 and a total of 70.3 (actual 62).
Team stats
| PENN | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-54 43% | Field goals | 23-56 41% |
| 5-21 24% | 3-pointers | 3-20 15% |
| 18-25 72% | Free throws | 21-31 68% |
| 42 12 off | Rebounds | 29 8 off |
| 11 | Assists | 7 |
| 1 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| PENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Zanoni G | 38 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-7 |
| TJ Power F | 37 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 7-16 | 2-7 |
| Cam Thrower G | 26 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Augustus Gerhart F | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| AJ Levine G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dalton Scantlebury F | 24 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Jay Jones G | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Alex Massung G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Lucas Lueth F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Niklas Polonowski G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Dylan Williams, Bradyn Foster, Michelangelo Oberti, Ethan Roberts, Johnnie Walter, Chris Ubochi, Ryan Altman, Payton Kamin, William Kruse
| RUTG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamichael Davis G | 29 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-10 | 1-5 |
| Harun Zrno G | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-7 |
| Dylan Grant F | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Denis Badalau F | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Emmanuel Ogbole C | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tariq Francis G | 28 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 9-14 | 1-4 |
| Darren Buchanan Jr. G | 26 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bryce Ruglass Dortch F | 25 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Lino Mark G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Chris Nwuli F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Max Fradkin, Baye Fall, Kaden Powers, Gevonte Ware, Dorian Jones
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketRUTG -11.5
ModelRUTG -11.4
Model edgePENN +0.1
W PENN covered
Total
Market150.5
Model150.1
Model edgeUnder 0.4
W Under
Projected score
PENN 69.3 · RUTG 80.7
PENN 69 · RUTG 70
Win probability
RUTG 84%
1st half
Spread
RUTG -6.7
PENN -4.0
Total
70.3
62 points
Projected score
PENN 31.8 · RUTG 38.5
PENN 33 · RUTG 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenRUTG -11.5
no move
CloseRUTG -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▲ 1
Close150.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
PENN +575 · RUTG -850
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened RUTG -11.5 · unchangedmodel RUTG -11.5 matches the line
model RUTG -11.5 = line ✓
Opened 149.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150
model 150
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENNlast 9 | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% | 3-6 33% |
| RUTG | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn
9 games played
Straight up
5-4
56% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ AMER | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | @ PROV | L 81-106 | +19.5 | L −5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 17 | vs JOES | W 83-74 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ DREX | W 84-68 | +4.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 28 | vs MRMK | W 77-65 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs LAS | W 73-71 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 30 | vs HOF | L 60-77 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | @ VILL | L 63-90 | +18.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 8 | vs LAF | W 74-72 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
−7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
−5.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
+14.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
+20.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
+9.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
+0.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−15.5
6
@VILL
VILLL 63-90
−8.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 74-72
−5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
+7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
+14.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
−6.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
−0.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
−10.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
−5.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−12.5
6
@VILL
VILLL 63-90
+2.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 74-72
−4.5
over 3under 6avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Rutgers
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
3-8
27% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs RID | W 81-53 | -18.5 | W +9.5 | 139.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 10 | vs ME | W 72-60 | -18.5 | L −6.5 | 130.5 | O 132 |
| Nov 14 | vs LEH | W 84-72 | -18.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 18 | vsAMER | W 80-71 | -16.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs CCSU | L 54-67 | -15.5 | L −28.5 | 137.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 24 | vs TENN | L 60-85 | +14.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs ND | L 63-68 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNLV | W 80-65 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | vs PUR | L 65-81 | +13.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ MICH | L 60-101 | +25.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 13 | @ HALL | L 59-81 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-53
+9.5
10
vsME
MEW 72-60
−6.5
14
vsLEH
LEHW 84-72
−6.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 80-71
−7.5
21
vsCCSU
CCSUL 54-67
−28.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 60-85
−10.5
25
vsND
NDL 63-68
+1.5
27
vsUNLV
UNLVW 80-65
+19.5
2
vsPUR
PURL 65-81
−2.5
6
@MICH
MICHL 60-101
−15.5
13
@HALL
HALLL 59-81
−8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 8avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-53
−5.5
10
vsME
MEW 72-60
+1.5
14
vsLEH
LEHW 84-72
+19.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 80-71
+7.5
21
vsCCSU
CCSUL 54-67
−16.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 60-85
+3.5
25
vsND
NDL 63-68
−9.5
27
vsUNLV
UNLVW 80-65
−8.5
2
vsPUR
PURL 65-81
−0.5
6
@MICH
MICHL 60-101
+7.5
13
@HALL
HALLL 59-81
+3.5
over 6under 5avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn
5-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Lafayette74–72
- L@ Villanova63–90
- Lvs Hofstra60–77
- Wvs La Salle73–71
- Wvs Merrimack77–65
A week or more of rest.
Rutgers
5-6 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Seton Hall59–81
- L@ Michigan60–101
- Lvs Purdue65–81
- Wvs UNLV80–65
- Lvs Notre Dame63–68
A week or more of rest.