Purdue Boilermakers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETJersey Mike’s Arena · at Rutgers · Conference game

#23PURPurdue AP #181▲ winner

Final

#62RUTGRutgers65final

Closing linePUR -13.5✓ PUR covered by 2.5

Closing total146.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Purdue and Rutgers
PUR	This season	RUTG
7-0	Record	5-3
3-4	ATS	3-5
3-4	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PUR 84–65 RUTG · ✓ PUR (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PUR	40	41	81
RUTG	27	38	65

1st half: PUR 40, RUTG 27 (PUR by 13). The model had PUR by 11.7 and a total of 70.0 (actual 67).

Team stats

PUR		RUTG
27-58 47%	Field goals	25-56 45%
10-26 38%	3-pointers	8-17 47%
17-20 85%	Free throws	7-11 64%
36 11 off	Rebounds	25 6 off
18	Assists	12
4	Steals	6
2	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	9
14	Fouls	18
30	Points in paint	24
14	Fast-break points	7

Players

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Smith G	35	16	3	8	5-11	4-8
Trey Kaufman-Renn F	32	19	13	3	7-11	0-0
Fletcher Loyer G	28	12	2	2	3-11	2-7
Oscar Cluff C	24	8	3	2	4-8	0-0
C.J. Cox G	23	6	5	0	1-5	0-3
Bench
Gicarri Harris G	21	11	2	2	4-5	3-4
Omer Mayer G	13	3	0	0	1-5	0-3
Daniel Jacobsen C	13	3	4	0	1-1	0-0
Liam Murphy F	11	3	3	1	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Sam King, Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk, Jack Benter, Raleigh Burgess

RUTG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamichael Davis G	31	9	0	5	3-4	1-2
Darren Buchanan Jr. G	24	8	1	1	3-8	1-2
Dylan Grant F	24	13	2	0	5-10	1-3
Tariq Francis G	19	5	3	0	2-5	1-1
Emmanuel Ogbole C	19	2	6	0	1-5	0-0
Bench
Chris Nwuli F	17	2	3	1	1-3	0-0
Harun Zrno G	16	13	1	2	5-8	3-5
Lino Mark G	13	3	1	3	1-2	0-0
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	13	3	2	0	1-1	0-0
Kaden Powers G	12	5	2	0	2-6	1-2
Gevonte Ware C	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Denis Badalau F	4	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Baye Fall C	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Max Fradkin, Dorian Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PUR -13.5	PUR -19.1	PUR +5.6	W PUR covered
Total	146.5	149.5	Over 3.0	L Under
Projected score	—	PUR 84.3 · RUTG 65.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -11.7	PUR -13.0
1H total	70.0	67
1H projected score	PUR 40.8 · RUTG 29.2	PUR 40 · RUTG 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-0	2-4
RUTG LLLWW	3-5	38%	1-4	2-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UOUUO	3-4	43%	7-0
RUTG OUOUU	4-4	50%	5-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PURlast 7	7-0 100%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
RUTGlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

PUR 6–2 RUTGPUR leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · PUR has won the last 5 meetings · PUR 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 4, 2024-25	RUTG 71 @ PUR 100	PUR -11.5	PUR W
Jan 9, 2024-25	PUR 68 @ RUTG 50	RUTG +2.5	PUR W
Feb 22, 2023-24	RUTG 68 @ PUR 96	PUR -14.5	PUR W
Jan 28, 2023-24	PUR 68 @ RUTG 60	RUTG +10.5	RUTG W
Mar 10, 2022-23	RUTG 65 vs PUR 70	PUR -5.5	RUTG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 20	vsMEM	W 80-71	-14.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsTTU	W 86-56	-3.5	W +26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsEIU	W 109-62	-40.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

+26.5

EIU

W 109-62

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

−11.5

EIU

W 109-62

+29.5

over 3under 4avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rutgers

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-538%

W L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-450%

U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsAMER	W 80-71	-16.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 21	vsCCSU	L 54-67	-15.5	L −28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsTENN	L 60-85	+14.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsND	L 63-68	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 27	vsUNLV	W 80-65	+4.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

AMER

W 80-71

−7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−28.5

TENN

L 60-85

−10.5

L 63-68

+1.5

UNLV

W 80-65

+19.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

AMER

W 80-71

+7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−16.5

TENN

L 60-85

+3.5

L 63-68

−9.5

UNLV

W 80-65

−8.5

over 4under 4avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue Boilermakers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue

Rutgers

Purdue

Rutgers