Winthrop Eagles at Long Island University Sharks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:30 PM ETBrooklyn Athletic Center · at Long Island

#205WINWinthrop94▲ winner

Final

Closing lineWIN -5.5✓ LIU covered by 3.5

Closing total153.5Over by 32.5

Season records: Winthrop and Long Island
WIN	This season	LIU
4-4	Record	4-3
7-1	ATS	3-4
3-5	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIN 82–74 LIU · ✓ WIN (75%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
WIN	47	37	10	94
LIU	37	47	8	92

1st half: WIN 47, LIU 37 (WIN by 10). The model had WIN by 4.8 and a total of 73.0 (actual 84).

Team stats

WIN		LIU
32-69 46%	Field goals	32-62 52%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	8-17 47%
24-29 83%	Free throws	20-25 80%
37 16 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
17	Assists	19
7	Steals	9
6	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	14
22	Fouls	25
52	Points in paint	42
5	Fast-break points	13

Players

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daylen Berry G	36	21	6	5	6-9	2-3
Kareem Rozier G	35	13	1	4	4-17	3-12
Kody Clouet G	34	9	3	3	2-6	1-4
Logan Duncomb C	30	28	6	1	11-13	0-0
Isaiah Wilson G	13	2	2	3	0-2	0-0
Bench
Pharrell Boyogueno G	23	8	3	0	3-7	0-3
Josh Meo G	21	2	5	0	1-7	0-0
Tommy Kamarad F	20	9	8	1	4-5	0-0
Seifeldin Hendawy G	10	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Ed Nnamoko F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Braylhan Thomas, Kaleb Evans, Henry Harrison, Cam Christy, Tai Hamilton

LIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Gordon G	42	27	5	5	11-18	0-0
Jamal Fuller G	42	20	5	2	6-10	1-3
Jomo Goings G	29	18	7	2	6-12	2-5
Shadrak Lasu F	20	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Malachi Davis G	20	14	2	2	6-12	2-5
Bench
Mason Porter-Brown F	32	11	4	3	3-6	3-4
Tre'shawn Sheppard G	21	2	6	1	0-2	0-0
Faheim Meran G	17	0	2	4	0-1	0-0
A.J. Neal Jr. G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Max Ndlovu-Fraser, Gavin Pendergast, Eddie Munyak, Isaiah Miranda, Xinyi Li, Caleb Johnson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WIN -5.5	WIN -7.8	WIN +2.3	L LIU covered
Total	153.5	156.0	Over 2.5	W Over
Projected score	—	WIN 81.9 · LIU 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -4.8	WIN -10.0
1H total	73.0	84
1H projected score	WIN 38.9 · LIU 34.1	WIN 47 · LIU 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN WWWWW	7-1	88%	4-1	4-1
LIU LWLLW	3-4	43%	1-0	2-3

Venue/role: WIN away, as favorite; LIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN OUUUO	3-5	38%	4-4
LIU OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WINlast 8	4-4 50%	7-1 88%	3-5 38%
LIUlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIN 1–0 LIUWIN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WIN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2024-25	LIU 65 @ WIN 87	WIN -13.5	WIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

8 games played

Straight up

4-4

50% wins

Against the spread

7-1

88% covers · avg +8.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-450%

W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-188%

W W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-538%

U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 25	@NEB	L 73-80	+14.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsSCST	W 101-79	-20.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

NEB

L 73-80

+7.5

SCST

W 101-79

+1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 1avg +8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

NEB

L 73-80

−13.5

SCST

W 101-79

+22.5

over 3under 5avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Long Island

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ND	L 67-89	+15.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 6	@IUIN	W 94-90	+4.5	W +8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 11	@AF	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsJMU	W 88-79	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 20	@FOR	L 53-69	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 22	@ILL	L 58-98	+34.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	@MOST	W 75-61	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-89

−6.5

IUIN

W 94-90

+8.5

W 76-72

−1.5

JMU

W 88-79

+5.5

FOR

L 53-69

−11.5

ILL

L 58-98

−5.5

MOST

W 75-61

+18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-89

+20.5

IUIN

W 94-90

−1.5

W 76-72

+10.5

JMU

W 88-79

+19.5

FOR

L 53-69

−23.5

ILL

L 58-98

−4.5

MOST

W 75-61

−9.5

over 3under 4avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop Eagles at Long Island University Sharks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

Long Island

Winthrop

Long Island