Grambling Tigers at Tulane Green Wave: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:30 PM ETAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane

#338GRAMGrambling63final

Final

#130TULNTulane65▲ winner

Closing lineTULN -11.5✓ GRAM covered by 9.5

Closing total148.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Grambling and Tulane
GRAM	This season	TULN
2-4	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GRAM 69–80 TULN · ✓ TULN (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GRAM	31	32	63
TULN	30	35	65

1st half: GRAM 31, TULN 30 (GRAM by 1). The model had TULN by 6.8 and a total of 69.6 (actual 61).

Team stats

GRAM		TULN
21-48 44%	Field goals	21-54 39%
7-27 26%	3-pointers	7-22 32%
14-20 70%	Free throws	16-21 76%
33 9 off	Rebounds	30 11 off
13	Assists	12
3	Steals	12
2	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	7
21	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	26
7	Fast-break points	5

Players

GRAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Roderick Coffee III F	39	5	10	6	2-5	0-2
Randarius Jones C	33	12	5	0	5-8	0-0
Rickey Ballard F	28	7	0	0	2-5	2-5
Jimel Lane F	27	8	8	5	3-6	0-2
Antonio Munoz F	5	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Derrius Ward G	36	18	1	2	5-10	3-8
Jamil Muttilib G	15	11	1	0	3-8	2-7
Devyn Franklin G	9	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
P.J. Edwards G	8	0	2	0	0-3	0-3

Did not play: Chancellor Perkins, Mekhi Fitts, Richard Amaefule, Saliou Seye, Nazar Mahmoud

TULN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Curtis Williams Jr. G	39	17	13	3	7-11	2-5
Rowan Brumbaugh G	37	17	4	2	4-11	2-6
Asher Woods G	34	13	2	2	3-11	1-3
Scotty Middleton F	19	2	1	1	1-7	0-4
Tyler Ringgold F	16	3	2	1	1-6	0-1
Bench
Percy Daniels C	24	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Josiah Moore G	22	7	3	2	3-5	0-1
KJ Greene G	9	6	0	1	2-3	2-2

Did not play: Vasilije Kuridza, Robert Moore, Joseph Teich, Luke Rasmussen, Luke Cronin, Jake Shapiro, Davion Bradford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TULN -11.5	TULN -11.6	TULN +0.1	L GRAM covered
Total	148.5	148.7	Over 0.2	L Under
Projected score	—	GRAM 68.5 · TULN 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -6.8	GRAM -1.0
1H total	69.6	61
1H projected score	GRAM 31.4 · TULN 38.2	GRAM 31 · TULN 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GRAM WWLWL	3-3	50%	2-3	2-3
TULN LLLWW	3-4	43%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: GRAM away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GRAM UUUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
TULN UUOOO	5-2	71%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GRAMlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
TULNlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grambling

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@ISU	L 62-102	+33.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 9	@HOW	W 73-70	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsUSM	W 75-70	-2.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	@USD	L 68-78	+6.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	@CBU	L 59-72	+14.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 24	@UCR	L 74-83	+3.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

−6.5

HOW

W 73-70

+7.5

USM

W 75-70

+2.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

CBU

L 59-72

+1.5

UCR

L 74-83

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

+19.5

HOW

W 73-70

−9.5

USM

W 75-70

−3.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

CBU

L 59-72

−13.5

UCR

L 74-83

+12.5

over 2under 4avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulane

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −5.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +8.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

over 5under 2avg +8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grambling Tigers at Tulane Green Wave

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Grambling

Tulane

Grambling

Tulane