1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. OAK @ MICH
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Michigan Wolverines

Crisler Center · at Michigan
#204OAKOakland
@
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
LineMICH -27.5moved 1 toward OAK
Total157.5up 1 from 156.5
OAKThis seasonMICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 96–62 · win probability MICH 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MICH -27.5
moved 1 toward OAK
Total
157.5
model 157.4
Model edge
MICH by 6.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
95% OAK
62% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

OAK 1, MICH 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
MICH offense vs OAK defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, MICH 34.7%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, MICH 71.8%
MICHBig
OAK offense vs MICH defense
Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, MICH the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MICHBig
Three-pointers
OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 34.0% and 41.5% of their shots
OAKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, MICH 16.3%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, MICH 15.2%
MICHSmall
Home court
MICH at home. This season: MICH 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, MICH 38%. Transfers in: OAK 5, MICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), MICH 71.7 (48th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, MICH 38.0. Allowed: OAK 24.6, MICH 26.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward OAK
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
OAK +3000 · MICH -10000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MICH -28.5 · now MICH -26.5 · moved 2 toward OAKmodel MICH -34
Opened 156.5 · now 157 · moved 0.5 upmodel 157.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
OAK +27.5SpreadMICH -27.5
Bets
Money
Money is 32 pts ahead of bets on MICH -27.5
Over 157.5TotalUnder 157.5
Bets
Money
OAKWinnerMICH
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
OAKMICHOverUnderOAKMICH
BetMGMMGM-26.5-105+26.5-115156.5-110156.5-110+3000-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-26.5-110+26.5-110157-105157-115——
BetRiversBetRivers-27.5-109+27.5-114157.5-112157.5-112——
BetUSBetUS-26.5-110+26.5-110157-105157-115——
BovadaBovada-26.5+100+26.5-120157.5-110157.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-27.5-115+27.5-105157.5-105157.5-115+2500-9000
FanDuelFD-26.5-110+26.5-110156.5-114156.5-106+5000-30000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-26.5-106+26.5-106157-103157-113——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMICH -27.5MICH -33.8MICH +6.3
Total157.5157.4Under 0.1
Projected score—OAK 61.8 · MICH 95.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -20.0—
1H total73.6—
1H projected scoreOAK 26.8 · MICH 46.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 0, Michigan 4, even 1
OaklandBetterMichigan
G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22
MICHBig
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
MICHBig
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59
MICHSmall
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79
Even
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
MICHBig
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
OaklandBetterMichigan
OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8
MICHBig
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8
MICHBig
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players
MICHBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
MICHBig
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench-1.7 · 2 players
MICHBig
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestOAK betterMICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oakland
Guards
N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew
Forwards
B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OAKMICH
Scoring
81.6 #37Points per game87.3 #4
1.14 #66Points per possession1.21 #8
71.1 #67Pace (possessions)71.7 #48
Shooting
52.7 #114Effective FG%58.3 #8
34.7 #1313-point %36.8 #33
34.0 #2943-point attempt rate41.5 #141
38.1 #100Free throw rate38.0 #102
Possessions
14.7 #47Turnover rate16.3 #157
31.3 #152Offensive rebound rate34.7 #55
15.7 #60Assists per game18.6 #5
Defense
82.8 #344Points allowed69.5 #55
1.17 #340Points allowed per possession0.97 #8
54.7 #322Opponent effective FG%44.6 #1
34.3 #206Opponent 3-point %30.4 #18
15.1 #275Turnovers forced15.2 #270
65.6 #324Defensive rebound rate71.8 #70
7.2 #106Steals per game5.6 #286
3.7 #110Blocks per game6.0 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky84–85
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
  • W@ IU Indy86–74
  • Wvs Milwaukee81–70
  • Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.