1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. W&M @ MICH
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

William & Mary Tribe at Michigan Wolverines

Crisler Center · at Michigan
#217W&MWilliam & Mary
@
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
W&MThis seasonMICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 96–62 · win probability MICH 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 157.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

W&M 1, MICH 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
MICH offense vs W&M defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 289th, on the model’s ratings
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: W&M 26.0%, MICH 34.7%. Defensive: W&M 68.5%, MICH 71.8%
Context
Schedule so far
W&M has played the 171st-hardest schedule, MICH the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MICHBig
Three-pointers
W&M hits 33.0% and allows 33.0%; MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 42.8% and 41.5% of their shots
MICHBig
W&M offense vs MICH defense
Offense 160th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: W&M 54.3 and allows 51.9; MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6
W&MSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: W&M 16.6%, MICH 16.3%. Forced: W&M 18.9%, MICH 15.2%
MICHSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: W&M 1%, MICH 38%. Transfers in: W&M 7, MICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MICHSmall
Home court
MICH at home. This season: MICH 0-0 at home, W&M 0-0 away
MICHSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: W&M 44.0, MICH 38.0. Allowed: W&M 35.5, MICH 26.0
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: W&M plays 73.6 a game (14th fastest), MICH 71.7 (48th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -34.3—
Total—157.8—
Projected score—W&M 61.7 · MICH 96.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -20.3—
1H total73.7—
1H projected scoreW&M 26.7 · MICH 47—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: William & Mary 0, Michigan 4, even 1
William & MaryBetterMichigan
G J. Baldwin TR7.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 63
MICHSmall
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
G J. McIntosh TR6.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
MICHBig
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
G T. Blassingame TR3.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18
MICHBig
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
G N. Daniels TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
F S. Sivka TR2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15
MICHBig
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
William & MaryBetterMichigan
W&M offense160th of 366 · -4.8
MICHBig
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
W&M defense289th of 366 · -7.2
MICHBig
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
MICHBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
MICHBig
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
MICHBig
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestW&M betterMICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
William & Mary
Guards
J. Baldwin20 min · TRJ. McIntosh17 min · TRT. Blassingame17 min · TRN. Daniels10 min · TRZ. Clark9 min · TRJ. Forsythe4 min · TR
Forwards
S. Sivka11 min · TRB. CarterNewJ. RolandNew
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
W&MMICH
Scoring
81.5 #38Points per game87.3 #4
1.11 #116Points per possession1.21 #8
73.6 #14Pace (possessions)71.7 #48
Shooting
54.3 #58Effective FG%58.3 #8
33.0 #2333-point %36.8 #33
42.8 #1203-point attempt rate41.5 #141
44.0 #9Free throw rate38.0 #102
Possessions
16.6 #171Turnover rate16.3 #157
26.0 #324Offensive rebound rate34.7 #55
17.4 #17Assists per game18.6 #5
Defense
78.9 #294Points allowed69.5 #55
1.07 #126Points allowed per possession0.97 #8
51.9 #205Opponent effective FG%44.6 #1
33.0 #126Opponent 3-point %30.4 #18
18.9 #52Turnovers forced15.2 #270
68.5 #229Defensive rebound rate71.8 #70
7.9 #47Steals per game5.6 #286
3.8 #95Blocks per game6.0 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

William & Mary

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra61–92
  • Wvs Elon72–62
  • Wvs Hampton94–85
  • W@ NC A&T91–88
  • Wvs Northeastern84–77

A week or more of rest.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.