William & Mary Tribe vs UTEP Miners: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 4:00 PM ETJohn Hurst Adams Gymnasium · Neutral site

Final

#190UTEPUTEP63final

Closing lineW&M -2.5✓ W&M covered by 8.5

Closing total159.5Under by 22.5

Season records: William & Mary and UTEP
W&M	This season	UTEP
2-2	Record	0-2
3-1	ATS	0-2
2-2	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: W&M 77–76 UTEP · ✓ W&M (55%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
W&M	35	39	74
UTEP	23	40	63

1st half: W&M 35, UTEP 23 (W&M by 12). The model had W&M by 1.0 and a total of 71.9 (actual 58).

Team stats

W&M		UTEP
26-53 49%	Field goals	24-65 37%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	5-25 20%
14-20 70%	Free throws	10-15 67%
40 9 off	Rebounds	33 12 off
17	Assists	10
8	Steals	15
3	Blocks	2
19	Turnovers	15
12	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	32
8	Fast-break points	5

Players

W&M	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kyle Pulliam G	26	16	5	1	6-11	1-3
Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi F	23	4	3	3	1-5	1-4
Cade Haskins F	18	6	3	0	2-6	1-5
Kilian Brockhoff F	18	6	6	1	2-8	1-5
Chase Lowe G	18	9	2	2	3-4	0-0
Bench
Jo'el Emanuel F	25	6	3	4	2-5	1-1
Ryan Jackson Jr. G	24	4	6	1	2-4	0-0
Reese Miller G	24	16	3	3	5-7	2-4
Jhei-R Jones G	22	4	4	2	2-2	0-0
Finn Lally F	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Kaleb Spencer, Ethan Connery, Colin Lamine Ndaw, Kyle Frazier, Miles Hicks

UTEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyreese Watson G	30	3	2	4	1-12	1-5
Caleb Blackwell G	29	13	3	2	6-15	1-5
Jamal West Jr. F	25	9	5	0	4-7	1-1
Kaseem Watson F	25	11	2	0	4-10	0-4
Elijah Jones F	20	10	5	0	4-6	0-2
Bench
Cassius Brooks G	24	11	5	0	3-5	1-2
KJ Thomas G	18	0	1	2	0-2	0-1
David Tubek F	17	6	5	1	2-3	1-1
Trey Horton III G	12	0	0	1	0-5	0-4

Did not play: LA Hayes, Mouhamed Mbaye, Bobby Montgomery Jr., Jordan Hernandez, C.J. Smith

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	W&M -2.5	W&M -1.4	UTEP +1.1	L W&M covered
Total	159.5	153.5	Under 6.0	W Under
Projected score	—	W&M 77.4 · UTEP 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	W&M -1.0	W&M -12.0
1H total	71.9	58
1H projected score	W&M 36.5 · UTEP 35.4	W&M 35 · UTEP 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
W&M WWLW	3-1	75%	—	1-0
UTEP LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: W&M neutral site, as favorite; UTEP neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
W&M OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
UTEP UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
W&Mlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
UTEPlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

William & Mary

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

over 2under 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UTEP

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −11 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −19.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsLMU	L 58-71	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 15	@USU	L 51-75	+16.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−14.5

USU

L 51-75

−7.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−15.5

USU

L 51-75

−23.5

over 0under 2avg −19.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

William & Mary vs UTEP

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

William & Mary

UTEP

William & Mary

UTEP