Crisler Center · at Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -26.5✓ MICH covered by 14.5
MICH -26.5✓ MICH covered by 14.5Closing total161.5Over by 17.5
 PSU | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | Record | 20-1 |
| 9-13 | ATS | 10-11 |
| 13-9 | O/U | 8-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PSU 68–94 MICH · ✓ MICH (99%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 24 | 45 | 69 |
| MICH | 56 | 54 | 110 |
1st half: PSU 24, MICH 56 (MICH by 32). The model had MICH by 14.9 and a total of 75.8 (actual 80).
Team stats
| PSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-62 37% | Field goals | 40-66 61% |
| 2-20 10% | 3-pointers | 15-29 52% |
| 21-26 81% | Free throws | 15-17 88% |
| 21 9 off | Rebounds | 44 11 off |
| 7 | Assists | 31 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 8 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 1 |
Players
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Dilione V G | 40 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 8-21 | 1-8 |
| Melih Tunca G | 38 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-3 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 36 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-10 | 0-3 |
| Josh Reed F | 26 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4-12 | 1-3 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mason Blackwood F | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Justin Houser C | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Chris Lotito F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sasa Ciani, Ivan Juric, Reggie Grodin, Tibor Mirtic, Eli Rice
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 25 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 23 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 3-9 | 1-6 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 21 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 11-16 | 7-10 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 18 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Aday Mara C | 15 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 27 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Will Tschetter F | 26 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| L.J. Cason G | 26 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Malick Kordel C | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Howard Eisley Jr. G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Ricky Liburd, Charlie May, Roddy Gayle Jr.
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -25.5
1 → MICH
CloseMICH -26.5
1 pt toward MICH
Total
Open163.5
▼ 2
Close161.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
PSU +2000 · MICH -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -25.5 · closed MICH -26.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -25
model MICH -25
Opened 163.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 2 downmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -26.5 | MICH -25.2 | PSU +1.3 | L MICH covered |
| Total | 161.5 | 162.1 | Over 0.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | PSU 68.4 · MICH 93.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -14.9 | MICH -32.0 |
| 1H total | 75.8 | 80 |
| 1H projected score | PSU 30.5 · MICH 45.3 | PSU 24 · MICH 56 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
PSU 3–4 MICHMICH leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MICH has won the last 2 meetings · PSU 6-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025-26 | MICH 74 @ PSU 72 | PSU +24.5 | PSU W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | PSU 72 @ MICH 76 | MICH -9.5 | PSU W |
| Mar 13, 2023-24 | MICH 57 vs PSU 66 | PSU -6.5 | PSU W |
| Jan 7, 2023-24 | MICH 73 vs PSU 79 | PSU +3.5 | PSU W |
| Jan 29, 2022-23 | MICH 61 @ PSU 83 | PSU -3.5 | PSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn State
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
9-13
41% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @ IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | vs MSU | L 72-76 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 21 | vs PITT | L 46-80 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 29 | vs NCCU | W 90-67 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | vs ILL | L 65-73 | +14.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vsMICH | L 72-74 | +24.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | @ PUR | L 85-93 | +22.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs UCLA | L 60-71 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 18 | @ MD | L 73-96 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 22 | vs WIS | L 71-98 | +5.5 | L −21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 26 | @ OSU | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 29 | @ NU | L 73-94 | +7.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 1 | vs MINN | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+8.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−35.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
−0.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
+6.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
+22.5
10
@PUR
PURL 85-93
+14.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAL 60-71
−6.5
18
@MD
MDL 73-96
−21.5
22
vsWIS
WISL 71-98
−21.5
26
@OSU
OSUL 78-84
+5.5
29
@NU
NUL 73-94
−13.5
1
vsMINN
MINNW 77-75
+4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 13avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+2.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−20.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
+6.5
3
vsILL
ILLL 65-73
−18.5
6
vsMICH
MICHL 72-74
−23.5
10
@PUR
PURL 85-93
+25.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAL 60-71
−17.5
18
@MD
MDL 73-96
+20.5
22
vsWIS
WISL 71-98
+11.5
26
@OSU
OSUL 78-84
+8.5
29
@NU
NUL 73-94
+18.5
1
vsMINN
MINNW 77-75
+9.5
over 13under 9avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
21 games played
Straight up
20-1
95% wins
Against the spread
10-11
48% covers · avg +4.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-13
38% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vsLAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vsIU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vsOSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
covered 10didn’t cover 11avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
over 8under 13avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn State
10-12 overall · 1-10 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Minnesota77–75
- L@ Northwestern73–94
- L@ Ohio State78–84
- Lvs Wisconsin71–98
- L@ Maryland73–96
4 days since their last game.
Michigan
20-1 overall · 10-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Michigan St83–71
- Wvs Nebraska75–72
- Wvs Ohio State74–62
- Wvs Indiana86–72
- W@ Oregon81–71
6 days since their last game.