The Palestra · at Penn State · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -14.5✓ PSU covered by 6.5
ILL -14.5✓ PSU covered by 6.5Closing total156.5Under by 18.5
| ILL | This season | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | Record | 9-4 |
| 8-5 | ATS | 4-9 |
| 4-9 | O/U | 7-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 86–72 PSU · ✓ ILL (90%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 40 | 33 | 73 |
| PSU | 26 | 39 | 65 |
1st half: ILL 40, PSU 26 (ILL by 14). The model had ILL by 8.9 and a total of 74.1 (actual 66).
Team stats
| ILL | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-56 39% | Field goals | 24-69 35% |
| 6-27 22% | 3-pointers | 8-38 21% |
| 23-28 82% | Free throws | 9-14 64% |
| 48 13 off | Rebounds | 37 14 off |
| 9 | Assists | 11 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 26 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylan Boswell G | 35 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5-13 | 2-5 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 31 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| David Mirkovic F | 26 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 20 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-5 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 26 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 23 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Jake Davis F | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Lee G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Blake Fagbemi, Ty Rodgers
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Rice G | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-7 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 27 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5-12 | 2-8 |
| Freddie Dilione V G | 26 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-7 |
| Ivan Juric F | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Josh Reed F | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dominick Stewart G | 26 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Melih Tunca G | 22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Tibor Mirtic F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Justin Houser, Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -14.5
ModelILL -14.7
Model edgeILL +0.2
L PSU covered
Total
Market156.5
Model158.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
L Under
Projected score
ILL 86.4 · PSU 71.7
ILL 73 · PSU 65
Win probability
ILL 90%
1st half
Spread
ILL -8.9
ILL -14.0
Total
74.1
66 points
Projected score
ILL 41.5 · PSU 32.6
ILL 40 · PSU 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -18.5
4 → PSU
CloseILL -14.5
4 pts toward PSU
Total
Open156.5
no move
Close156.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ILL -1600 · PSU +900
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -18.5 · closed ILL -14.5 · moved 4 toward PSUmodel ILL -14.5 matches the line
model ILL -14.5 = line ✓
Opened 156.5 · unchangedmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| PSU | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
ILL 2–4 PSUPSU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · ILL 1-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | PSU 52 @ ILL 91 | ILL -7.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | ILL 89 @ PSU 90 | PSU +7.5 | PSU W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | PSU 79 vs ILL 76 | ILL -2.5 | PSU W |
| Feb 14, 2022-23 | ILL 81 @ PSU 93 | PSU +3.5 | PSU W |
| Dec 10, 2022-23 | PSU 74 @ ILL 59 | ILL -10.5 | PSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
8-5
62% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-9
31% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
over 4under 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn State
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
4-9
31% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @ IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | vs MSU | L 72-76 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 21 | vs PITT | L 46-80 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 29 | vs NCCU | W 90-67 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+8.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−35.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
−0.5
covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+2.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−20.5
29
vsNCCU
NCCUW 90-67
+6.5
over 7under 6avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
10-3 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Southern90–55
- Wvs Missouri91–48
- Lvs Nebraska80–83
- W@ Ohio State88–80
- Wvs Tennessee75–62
5 days since their last game.
Penn State
9-4 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC Central90–67
- Lvs Pitt46–80
- Lvs Michigan St72–76
- L@ Indiana72–113
- Wvs Campbell87–76
5 days since their last game.