Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 6, 7:00 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State · Conference game

#8MICHMichigan AP #274▲ winner

Final

Closing lineMICH -24.5✓ PSU covered by 22.5

Closing total169.5Under by 23.5

Season records: Michigan and Penn State
MICH	This season	PSU
13-0	Record	9-5
9-4	ATS	5-9
6-7	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MICH 93–70 PSU · ✓ MICH (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MICH	40	34	74
PSU	31	41	72

1st half: MICH 40, PSU 31 (MICH by 9). The model had MICH by 14.2 and a total of 76.3 (actual 71).

Team stats

MICH		PSU
26-57 46%	Field goals	23-66 35%
8-27 30%	3-pointers	8-30 27%
14-19 74%	Free throws	18-23 78%
37 7 off	Rebounds	43 15 off
15	Assists	10
3	Steals	7
7	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	10
20	Fouls	19
34	Points in paint	26
19	Fast-break points	1

Players

MICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Yaxel Lendeborg F	27	10	7	4	3-9	0-4
Elliot Cadeau G	27	9	2	1	3-8	1-5
Aday Mara C	24	7	7	4	2-5	0-0
Morez Johnson Jr. F	24	3	7	3	1-2	0-0
Nimari Burnett G	21	12	2	0	5-7	2-4
Bench
Trey McKenney G	24	12	2	0	5-7	2-4
Roddy Gayle Jr. G	23	7	3	1	2-9	1-5
L.J. Cason G	17	14	3	2	5-8	2-3
Will Tschetter F	13	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Malick Kordel, Ricky Liburd, Oscar Goodman, Howard Eisley Jr., Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Freddie Dilione V G	38	17	6	4	6-16	2-6
Dominick Stewart G	26	3	6	1	1-8	1-7
Ivan Juric F	24	20	4	1	6-13	2-5
Eli Rice G	24	7	1	0	2-7	1-4
Tibor Mirtic F	8	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Josh Reed F	29	13	10	1	4-6	1-2
Melih Tunca G	19	5	3	2	2-7	1-2
Sasa Ciani F	16	5	3	1	1-4	0-2
Mason Blackwood F	16	2	3	0	1-4	0-2

Did not play: Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito, Justin Houser, Kayden Mingo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MICH -24.5	MICH -23.6	PSU +0.9	W PSU covered
Total	169.5	163.0	Under 6.5	W Under
Projected score	—	MICH 93.3 · PSU 69.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MICH -14.2	MICH -9.0
1H total	76.3	71
1H projected score	MICH 45.3 · PSU 31	MICH 40 · PSU 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WLWWW	9-4	69%	0-2	8-4
PSU LWLLW	5-9	36%	3-6	2-2

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; PSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UOUOU	6-7	46%	13-0
PSU OOUOU	7-7	50%	9-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
PSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

MICH 3–3 PSUSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · MICH 1-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2024-25	PSU 72 @ MICH 76	MICH -9.5	PSU W
Mar 13, 2023-24	MICH 57 vs PSU 66	PSU -6.5	PSU W
Jan 7, 2023-24	MICH 73 vs PSU 79	PSU +3.5	PSU W
Jan 29, 2022-23	MICH 61 @ PSU 83	PSU -3.5	PSU W
Jan 4, 2022-23	PSU 69 @ MICH 79	MICH -3.5	MICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Michigan

13 games played

Straight up

13-0

100% wins

Against the spread

9-4

69% covers · avg +12.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-0100%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W

13 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-469%

W L L L W W W W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-746%

O O U U U O U O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOAK	W 121-78	-24.5	W +18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 11	vsWAKE	W 85-84	-15.5	L −14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 14	@TCU	W 67-63	-7.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 130
Nov 19	vsMTSU	W 86-61	-27.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 24	vsSDSU	W 94-54	-6.5	W +33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsAUB	W 102-72	-4.5	W +25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsGONZ	W 101-61	+3.5	W +43.5	165.5	U 162
Dec 6	vsRUTG	W 101-60	-25.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsVILL	W 89-61	-17.5	W +10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	@MD	W 101-83	-19.5	L −1.5	163.5	O 184
Dec 21	vsLAS	W 102-50	-40.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsMCN	W 112-71	-24.5	W +16.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 2	vsUSC	W 96-66	-22.5	W +7.5	173.5	U 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OAK

W 121-78

+18.5

WAKE

W 85-84

−14.5

TCU

W 67-63

−3.5

MTSU

W 86-61

−2.5

SDSU

W 94-54

+33.5

AUB

W 102-72

+25.5

GONZ

W 101-61

+43.5

RUTG

W 101-60

+15.5

VILL

W 89-61

+10.5

W 101-83

−1.5

LAS

W 102-50

+11.5

MCN

W 112-71

+16.5

USC

W 96-66

+7.5

covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +12.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OAK

W 121-78

+42.5

WAKE

W 85-84

+0.5

TCU

W 67-63

−34.5

MTSU

W 86-61

−12.5

SDSU

W 94-54

−0.5

AUB

W 102-72

+10.5

GONZ

W 101-61

−3.5

RUTG

W 101-60

+7.5

VILL

W 89-61

−6.5

W 101-83

+20.5

LAS

W 102-50

−3.5

MCN

W 112-71

+21.5

USC

W 96-66

−11.5

over 6under 7avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

5-9

36% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-936%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-750%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

over 7under 7avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Michigan @ Penn State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Michigan

Penn State

Michigan

Penn State