Michelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
MICH -4.5✓ MICH covered by 25.5
MICH -4.5✓ MICH covered by 25.5Closing total163.5Over by 10.5
 AUB | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 6-0 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AUB 82–86 MICH · ✓ MICH (63%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 31 | 41 | 72 |
| MICH | 59 | 43 | 102 |
1st half: AUB 31, MICH 59 (MICH by 28). The model had MICH by 2.1 and a total of 78.5 (actual 90).
Team stats
| AUB | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-62 35% | Field goals | 35-68 51% |
| 10-24 42% | 3-pointers | 14-35 40% |
| 18-33 55% | Free throws | 18-22 82% |
| 35 15 off | Rebounds | 51 16 off |
| 3 | Assists | 19 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 29 |
Players
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Hall F | 32 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 25 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5-10 | 2-3 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 24 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 4-10 | 4-6 |
| Kevin Overton G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Elyjah Freeman G | 17 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Filip Jovic C | 28 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Magwood G | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-4 |
| Simon Walker G | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Emeka Opurum C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Abdul Bashir, Joah Shay, Drake Cardwell, Reed Trapp, Jeremiah Bowman, Bradley Pearson, CJ Williams
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 27 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6-11 | 3-7 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 20 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 19 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Aday Mara C | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| L.J. Cason G | 25 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 24 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 6-13 | 3-6 |
| Trey McKenney G | 23 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Will Tschetter F | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Winters Grady G | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Malick Kordel C | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Charlie May G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Howard Eisley Jr., Ricky Liburd, Harrison Hochberg
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -4.5
ModelMICH -3.7
Model edgeAUB +0.8
L MICH covered
Total
Market163.5
Model167.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
W Over
Projected score
AUB 81.9 · MICH 85.6
AUB 72 · MICH 102
Win probability
MICH 63%
1st half
Spread
MICH -2.1
MICH -28.0
Total
78.5
90 points
Projected score
AUB 38.2 · MICH 40.3
AUB 31 · MICH 59
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -5.5
1 → AUB
CloseMICH -4.5
1 pt toward AUB
Total
Open160.5
▲ 3
Close163.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
AUB +180 · MICH -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -5.5 · closed MICH -4.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel MICH -3.5
model MICH -3.5
Opened 160.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 3 upmodel 167.5
model 167.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUBlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 6-0 100% |
| MICHlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 2-3 40% | 2-3 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
AUB 1–0 MICHAUB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · AUB 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024-25 | MICH 65 vs AUB 78 | AUB -9.5 | AUB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Auburn
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-0
100% overs · avg +10.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
BCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vs
MRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vs
WOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vs
HOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vs
JKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vs
ORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
over 6under 0avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
OAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vs
WAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@
TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vs
MTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vs
SDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
over 2under 3avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Auburn
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oregon84–73
- Wvs Jackson St112–66
- Lvs Houston72–73
- Wvs Wofford93–62
- Wvs Merrimack95–57
1 day since their last game.
Michigan
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs San Diego St94–54
- Wvs MTSU86–61
- W@ TCU67–63
- Wvs Wake Forest85–84
- Wvs Oakland121–78
1 day since their last game.