Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineTOR -5.5no move

Total220.5no move

Season records: Raptors and Clippers
TOR	This season	LAC
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 112–110 · win probability TOR 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

TOR -5.5

no move since the open

Total

220.5

model 222.3 · Over by 2

Model edge

LAC by 4

model vs market

Public on the spread

87% TOR

88% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 4, LAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

LAC offense vs TOR defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, LAC 17.0%

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, LAC 70.9%

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, LAC 28.0. Allowed: TOR 41.5, LAC 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 42.3% of their shots

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

TORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

TOR offense vs LAC defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rest

TOR 1 day since its last game, LAC 1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	630	64%	50%	51%
Non-conference games at this spread	533	67%	52%	51%
Games with a total of 220 to 224.5	696	69%	47%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	3-1
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: TOR away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ DEN	L115–121WU
Nov 6	@ MIL	W122–94WU
Nov 9	vs MEM	W128–96WU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs MIA	L123–140LO
Nov 8	vs NO	L99–105LU
Nov 10	@ PHX	W117–93WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 3–7 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · TOR 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	TOR 94 @ LAC 119	LAC -3.5	LAC W
Jan 16, 2025-26	LAC 121 @ TOR 117	TOR -2.5	LAC W
Feb 2, 2024-25	LAC 108 @ TOR 115	TOR +5.5	TOR W
Nov 9, 2024-25	TOR 103 @ LAC 105	LAC -6.5	TOR W
Jan 26, 2023-24	LAC 127 @ TOR 107	TOR +8.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 3, Clippers 0, even 2

RaptorsBetterClippers

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

RaptorsBetterClippers

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

LACSmall

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

LAC4.2 #22

TOR		LAC
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.04 #27
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
32.0 #24	3-point %	38.6 #5
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
29.2 #2	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
12.7 #2	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

1 day since their last game.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

1 day since their last game.

Raptors @ Clippers

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Clippers

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Clippers