Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Bucks
TOR	This season	MIL
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 120–110 · win probability TOR 77%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TOR 3, MIL 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, MIL 12.2%

TORBig

MIL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

TOR offense vs MIL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.9% of their shots

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, TOR 1-2 away

MILSmall

Rest

TOR 5 days since its last game, MIL 6

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, MIL 23.9. Allowed: TOR 41.5, MIL 29.7

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, MIL 74.2%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: TOR away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs MEM	W128–96WU
Nov 11	vs BOS	L101–115LU
Nov 12	@ PHI	L102–115LU

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs BOS	L101–133LO
Nov 10	@ NY	L98–127LO
Nov 11	vs LAL	W105–101WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

TOR 9–8 MILTOR leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 3 meetings · TOR 9-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	TOR 122 @ MIL 94	MIL +4.5	TOR W
Dec 18, 2025-26	TOR 111 @ MIL 105	MIL +4.5	TOR W
Nov 4, 2025-26	MIL 100 @ TOR 128	TOR -2.5	TOR W
Oct 24, 2025-26	MIL 122 @ TOR 116	TOR -2.5	MIL W
Jan 17, 2024-25	TOR 112 @ MIL 130	MIL -10.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 4, Bucks 0, even 1

RaptorsBetterBucks

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

TORSmall

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORSmall

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

Even

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

RaptorsBetterBucks

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORBig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

MIL4.0 #27

TOR		MIL
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.07 #20
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
32.0 #24	3-point %	33.9 #21
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
12.7 #2	Steals per game	5.7 #30
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

5 days since their last game.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

6 days since their last game.

Raptors @ Bucks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Bucks

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Bucks