Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Pelicans
MIN	This season	NO
4-3	Record	2-4
6-1	ATS	4-2
4-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 122–113 · win probability MIN 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 5, NO 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs NO defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 42.8% and 32.8% of their shots

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, NO 76.4%

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, NO 35.3. Allowed: MIN 28.9, NO 30.6

MINSmall

NO offense vs MIN defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, NO 17.4%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, NO 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rest

MIN 6 days since its last game, NO 6

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs UTAH	W147–111WO
Nov 12	vs DAL	W124–94WU
Nov 14	vs CHI	L115–120LU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ LAC	W105–99WU
Nov 9	@ GS	W113–109WU
Nov 11	vs BKN	W116–113WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIN 11–7 NOMIN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · MIN 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	NO 126 @ MIN 132	MIN -3.5	MIN W
Feb 6, 2025-26	NO 119 @ MIN 115	MIN -8.5	NO W
Dec 4, 2025-26	MIN 125 @ NO 116	NO +11.5	NO W
Dec 2, 2025-26	MIN 149 @ NO 142	NO +12.5	NO W
Mar 21, 2024-25	NO 93 @ MIN 134	MIN -14.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Pelicans 0, even 1

TimberwolvesBetterPelicans

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

Even

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINSmall

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

TimberwolvesBetterPelicans

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINSmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

NO4.8 #16

MIN		NO
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.10 #15
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
37.6 #6	3-point %	31.2 #25
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
27.3 #11	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
9.0 #13	Steals per game	13.7 #1
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

6 days since their last game.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

6 days since their last game.

Timberwolves @ Pelicans

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Pelicans

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Pelicans