Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Timberwolves
CHI	This season	MIN
1-5	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	6-1
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 129–109 · win probability MIN 92%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

CHI 1, MIN 7 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs CHI defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 47.9% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, MIN 75.4%

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, MIN 15.6%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, MIN 26.1. Allowed: CHI 33.5, MIN 28.9

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

MINSmall

CHI offense vs MIN defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ CLE	L110–115WU
Nov 18	@ BKN	L115–123LO
Nov 20	vs WSH	L120–124LU

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs POR	L104–108LU
Nov 17	vs POR	L104–108LU
Nov 19	vs NY	W115–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 6–4 MINCHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 22, 2025-26	CHI 120 @ MIN 115	MIN -9.5	CHI W
Dec 29, 2025-26	MIN 136 @ CHI 101	CHI +6.5	MIN W
Feb 5, 2024-25	CHI 108 @ MIN 127	MIN -10.5	MIN W
Nov 7, 2024-25	MIN 135 @ CHI 119	CHI +9.5	MIN W
Mar 31, 2023-24	CHI 109 @ MIN 101	MIN -8.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Timberwolves 4, even 0

BullsBetterTimberwolves

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHISmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

BullsBetterTimberwolves

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

MIN4.3 #20

CHI		MIN
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.13 #8
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
28.1 #30	3-point %	37.6 #6
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
24.3 #25	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.0 #13
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Timberwolves